The Mike Gill Show: Dinner at Arby's (as in arbitration)...

It’s (checks calendar) Wednesday and that means ... tomorrow’s Thursday.

No--that’s not it. I mean it is but it’s not what it’s about at least not…

Ahhhh screw it, I have the program for today’s ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show segment. Today we discuss:

• Ryan Howard wants $10 million and the Phillies are offering $7 million ... who wins if it goes to arbitration?
  
• Should the Phillies offer him a long-term deal and lock him up or take their chances when he is eligible for free agency in 2011 risking making him feel unhappy and unappreciated?
  
• Does Ryan Howard deserve Albert Pujols/A-Rod money, something less or something in-between?
  
• What is something you’re looking forward to as we approach spring training? (This will be a weekly question.)
  

Ryan Howard wants $10 million and the Phillies are offering $7 million ... who wins if it goes to arbitration?

Let’s see, he has a RotY award, an MVP, hit 105 HR the last two seasons and has a career line of .291/.397/.610. When you consider the mediocre talent that have been signing contracts that average $10 million a year--I can’t see an arbitrator saying that he’s worth only $7 million. Technically, a player can only compare himself to players of like tenure but there have always been exceptions made (Doug Drabek, Bruce Sutter, Fernando Valenzuela etc.) for players that have “star power.”

Should the Phillies offer him a long-term deal and lock him up or take their chances when he is eligible for free agency in 2011 risking making him feel unhappy and unappreciated?

If this kid is going to be part of the future, then lock him up now. Buy up his arbitration and a couple of his free agent years. When that contract is over he’ll be in his early 30’s and the team will have a better idea about how he’ll age.

Guarantee themselves that they will have this guy for his peak years. It’ll be cheaper than waiting for free agency judging by how revenues are growing. A team doesn’t have to pay free agent wages when offering a long-term deal at this point in his career. He trades some money for security and being set financially for life while the team will pay a little more now--by the time the contract is done (assuming no catastrophic injuries) they’ll have saved some money.

Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and to a lesser extent--Brett Myers are the core that a club builds around. Making sure all of them are under contract for the next few years almost guarantees that a franchise is in a position to contend for the foreseeable future.

Does Ryan Howard deserve Albert Pujols/A-Rod money, something less or something in-between?

Here is where the Phillies have to be careful. Don’t forget, they have got Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley sewn up so the Phillies cannot blow the doors off when locking up Howard. If they do, the team may put themselves in a position where there are unhappy players that they may have to renegotiate with to keep content. If Howard has filed for $10 million--then chances are he’ll be willing to take a bit less than that in exchange for long-term security.

Albert Pujols could fall over dead tomorrow and the Hall of Fame might make him eligible simply because he’s been historically great. Alex Rodriguez is heir to the home run crown. Both offer their club’s more than a booming bat. Howard is more limited--he can knock the crap out of the ball but he’s got little value defensively and none on the bases. Howard cannot realistically expect the levels of compensation that guys who are already (or close to being) Hall of Famers.

What is something you’re looking forward to as we approach spring training?

This is the year of second basemen. The Phillies have Utley, the Jays, Aaron Hill (I refer to Hill as ‘Utley-lite’), I’m expecting huge years out of both of them and hopefully an MVP will be coming Mr. Utley’s way in 2008. The Jays have this kid named Travis Snider who absolutely beats the snot out of the ball. He was all of 19 last year and hit 35 doubles, 7 triples, 16 HR and slugged .525 in 457 AB. In 2006, at the age of 18 he slugged .567 with 11 HR in less than 200 AB. I’ve seen some clips of him on YouTube and I’m hoping they bring him to Spring Training just to get a look at him. His hitting reminds me a lot of Ryan Howard (including the strikeouts) but he’s a corner OF (although I doubt he’ll be playing there by the time he reaches Toronto). If he comes to camp, I hope I’ll get to see him play some spring training games.

Let’s try this again shall we…?

Well, I’ve still got Frank Grimes laying on my floor with his tongue stuck in the CD drive. I’ve been told that I cannot move him until the coroner confirms he's deceased and next of kin are contacted. It would be a lot less disgusting if my dogs wouldn’t insist on rolling in him.

Ew.

However, the show must go on and the fine earthlings over at Drunk Jays Fans need to know that my post is over. Against my better judgement (which is pretty much how I’ve lived my life to this point in time) I will again be employing an animated guest to handle festivities.

Any guesses on who it is and why he’s volunteered to do the signoff?

“Well you’re really asking two questions there. The first one takes me back to 1934. Admiral Burn had just reached the pole, only hours ahead of the Three Stooges ... and I guess he won the argument, but I walked away with the turnips. The following morning I resigned my commission with the coastguard. The next thing I knew there was civil war in Spain and, that’s everything which happened in my life right up to the time you asked me to do this…”

And I appreciate your coming here toda…

“Now, my story begins in 19-dikkity-2. We had to say dikkity ‘cause the Kaiser had stolen our word twenty. I chased that rascal to get it back, but gave up after dikkity-six miles …”

Thanks, but we…

“ … three wars back we called Sauerkraut "liberty cabbage" and we called liberty cabbage "super slaw" and back then a suitcase was known as a "Swedish lunch box." Of course, nobody knew that but me. Anyway, long story short... is a phrase whose origins are complicated and rambling, kinda like…”

Um…

“… where you write posts that don't go anywhere. Like the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe. So, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days nickels had pictures of bumblebees on them. 'Give me five bees for a quarter', you'd say. Now, where were we? Oh, yeah...the important thing was that I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have white onions because of the war; the only thing you could get was those big yel…”

But…

“… AHHHHHHH DEATH!!”

Sorry, that’s just Frank Gri…

“… then after World War Two, it got kinda quiet, 'till Superman challenged FDR to a race around the world. FDR beat him by a furlong, or so the comic books would have you believe. The truth lies somewhere in betweeeezzzzzZZZZZZZ"

(whispering) BestRegardsJohnbye!

Pat Hentgen…

There is an interesting post over at Drunk Jays Fans about choosing your favourite player. Over the years, I have had several favourite Jays. One guy I fell in love with at the get-go was Pat Hentgen and Bergkamp’s post at DJF quickly caused me to recall him.

When I first saw him pitch in the big leagues on a semi-regular basis back in 1992 I knew he’d be good (and yes, I have multiple witnesses regarding my very rare successful prognostication). As a kid, Hentgen idolized Jack Morris and if imitation is the sincerest form of flattery then Morris should be very flattered.

They had differing styles but had one thing in common--they wanted the ball and they went into the game with the thought that the bullpen was getting the night off whether they liked it or not. I have two very distinct Hentgen memories that cropped up after a moment’s reflection. The first one was the year of the strike. The Jays were defending back-to-back World Series championships.

The Jays opened the season strong, so optimism was running high.

Back in the 1990’s, one pitcher had some serious ‘ownage’ on the Jays--Kevin Appier. Despite a .500 record against Toronto, he posted a career ERA of 2.84 in 171.1 IP. When the Kansas City Royals (who felt they were contenders after signing David Cone after the 1992 season) came in for a series in early May. Appier was to pitch the opener and would face 19-game winner (in 1993) Hentgen.

Both were at the top of their game--going into the bottom of the fourth, the only guy to reach base was Jose Lind who had gotten a dribbler up the middle after Hentgen struck out five of the first seven outs he recorded. Devon White opened the bottom of the fourth with a single and quickly stole second. Roberto Alomar grounded out to the right side of the infield and White was on third. A two out infield single by Joe Carter got Devo home.

Both hurlers continued to put up zeros on the scoreboard. Base runners were few and far between. In the eighth Hentgen struck out the side for the second time matching Appier‘s feat of doing likewise. With the Jays hanging onto a one run lead and Duane Ward out with what would be pretty much a career-ending injury; manager Cito Gaston decided to let Hentgen finish what he started.

He got both Brian McRae and Wally Joyner to quickly pop up to the infield. Mike MacFarlane battled Hentgen before getting him to swing through strike three. Hentgen turned around and yelled in triumph to his teammates. The box score said it all:

Kansas City Royals         IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR   
K Appier, L (2-3)           8     3   1   1    1  10   0        
Totals                      8     3   1   1    1  10   0   
              
Toronto Blue Jays          IP     H   R  ER   BB  SO  HR       
P Hentgen, W (4-2)          9     2   0   0    2  14   0        
Totals                      9     2   0   0    2  14   0        

The other memory was Hentgen’s run to the Cy Young from July 6, -Aug 28, 1996. Hentgen won 10 of 11 starts and the only real blemish on that stretch was on August 7, when Cito Gaston needed to rest his beleaguered bullpen and let Hentgen go the distance at Fenway Park giving up eight earned runs. He went the distance in his very next start at home against Boston but this time gave up a single run.

Despite the Fenway debacle, Hentgen posted 2.24 ERA over the 11 starts and tossed seven complete games including five in a row beginning with the bombing in Boston. Going into the July 6 start Hentgen was 7-6, 4.14 ERA and was on nobody’s Cy Young radar. By the end of August he was 17-7, 3.33 ERA and very much in the hunt, a hunt that would conclude successfully.

Jack Morris would’ve been proud.

Let‘s try again…

The nice thing about deceased cartoon characters is that they can be reanimated. So, after resurrecting Frank Grimes, I have asked him to handle today’s sign off for the good folks at Drunk Jays Fans.

Well?

Is there something wrong Mr. Grimes? You don’t look wel…

“Oh, I, I can't stand it any longer. This whole blogosphere is insane. Insane, I tell you! Daahh! Aaah! I can be lazy too! Look at me, I am a worthless blogger, just like John Brattain! Give me a Pulitzer! Ooh, I write like a moron, but nobody minds! I'm peeing on the CPU. Give me a job at ESPN! Now I'm returning to typing without washing my hands. But it doesn't matter, because I'm John Brattain! I don't need to blog intelligently, 'cause someone else will do it for me. Best Regards! Best Regards! Best Regards! Best Regards! Oh, hi, Mr. Studeman. I'm the worst writer in the world. Time to go home to my office and blog incessantly. What's this? "CD Drive?" Well, I can stick my tongue in it because I'm John Bra…”

Um errrrrr … should I call 911?

Gotta go.

Best Regards

John

Making the blood boil...

You have got to be kidding me. If this isn’t Bud Selig’s favourite writer then as God is my witness, I don’t know who is--check this out…

“Steroids and other performance enhancing drugs were used for one reason: Money. The better the numbers the players could post, the more money they could demand. The longer a career could be extended, the more cash went into the bank account.

Money, and only money, created the steroid era.

That means the decision to use or not is entirely a decision made by players, nobody else. MLB and owners may have buried their collective heads in the sand for as long as possible because they were making money off the steroid home run bombs, but only the players could decide to use or not use ... The players have taken to acting more like the Mafia then responsible citizens. They worry more about being called a "rat" by the miscreants who took the drugs then they worry about doing the right thing and caring about the game.”

Where do I start?

On the one hand, he says that MLB looked the other way because of profits, lavished large contracts on juicing players but says that players are entirely at fault for this? Has he considered that if owners refused to offer large contracts to steroid users it would have created a massive disincentive to use?

What he (I won’t name the writer to spare him the embarrassment) appears to be saying that when owners pay roiders ungodly amounts of money that it’s up to the players to say no. In any business, it’s management’s responsibility to set the parameters of employment. Even before drug testing came about, there was a ‘probable cause’ provision in the collective bargaining agreement where a team could--if it chose--make a case that an employee appeared to be abusing drugs and have him tested.

None did so.

If they took that step, they could offer contracts that reflected their disdain for performance-enhancing drug users.

None did so.

The New York Yankees agreed to strike every reference to steroids in Jason Giambi’s $120 million contract when it was being offered. They could have said to his agent Arn Tellem, “That request makes me suspicious that your client uses PED … the deal is off.”

They didn’t.

“The players have taken to acting more like the Mafia then responsible citizens. They worry more about being called a ‘rat’ by the miscreants who took the drugs then they worry about doing the right thing and caring about the game.”

Riiight, through all this ownership did nothing, the media said nothing, agents likewise and young men with little life experience are expected to be the ones responsible for ‘caring about the game.’ Ownership was taking a course of self-interest to protect profits. Agents took a course of self-interest to protect their level of commissions. The union executive took a course of self-interest to protect the salary bar. The media took a course of self-interest to protect access (so they could continue to earn money covering baseball) but when the players follow their example--they’re acting like the mafia?

Pathetic.

The truly sad thing about this piece is the fact that, of the five groups mentioned, it’s the players that are the youngest (hence, least experienced and least savvy) of the lot but this guy thinks they’re the ones responsible for this mess.

To give you an idea of who is truly purulent in all this…

The public funding of stadiums in MLB has cost taxpayers probably close to $10 billion since 1990 when you factor in maintenance, amortization, interest on bond issues etc. That translates into a lot less money for schools, healthcare, infrastructure and essential services (police, fire dept., various services for women and children). Often teams, while threatening their regions claim that the area has to demonstrate that it wants MLB to be part of their community. Further, they receive tangible economic benefits for shelling out the money.

Item 1: During the contraction fiasco in the early part of the decade, the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled that the Twins' lease required that the team play there in 2002 (therefore no contraction). It was here that Selig presented his brief, in which he said: “The Minnesota Twins are a private business; they are not owned by the people of Minnesota ... they are not a 'community asset' but a business …”

Yet…

On March 18, 2004 Governor Tim Pawlenty floated a proposal to have state and local governments pay for two-thirds of a new stadium for the Twins. Multi-billionaire Carl Pohlad said it wasn't enough: "[Public money] is where it should come from." (Read: from folks that aren't multi-billionaires like me) …

Item 2: From the Seattle Times: "The financial issue is simple, and the city's analysts agree, there will be no net economic loss if the Sonics leave Seattle. Entertainment dollars not spent on the Sonics will be spent on Seattle's many other sports and entertainment options. Seattleites will not reduce their entertainment budget simply because the Sonics leave…"

Any idea who said that? An economist? An anti-stadium lobby? Nope, the Sonics themselves. The team wants to leave Seattle, the city wishes to retain the club. The Sonics stated that a publicly financed new arena would be an economic plus for the region. Due to that, it should be the public that ponied up the cost of their current arena. Now that the Supersuckers want to graze in greener corporate welfare pastures they’re all but admitting that public financed sports venues are just one big boondoggle for the region building them.

There you have it. Bud Selig and his billionaire cartel have picked your pockets of untold billions of tax dollars and you get diddly-squat--no economic benefit, and the region has absolutely NO claim on your beloved team. It has always been about making the rich richer at the expense of those not rich.

These people are SLIME and the writer for USA Today wants to blame player avarice for the steroid era? I think he should be a proctopsychiatrist because he has one of the worst cases of inverse rectal-cranial syndrome that I have seen in a long, long time.

We have a very special guest star for today’s closing ceremonies…

In tribute to the good people of Drunk Jays Fans, I have enlisted the aid of the world renowned children’s author Dr. Suess to help with today’s sign-off. He has asked me to assist and I am honoured to do so. Here we go…

Dr. Suess: “I am Sam, John you are, will you give your best regards?”

I will not do it, Sam-you-are. I will not give my best regards.

Dr. Suess: “Would you do it here or there?”

I will not do it here or there. I will not do it anywhere. I will not give my best regards. I will not do it Sam-you-are.

Dr. Suess: “Would you do it in your house? Would you do it with your mouse?”

I will not do it in my house I will not do it with my mouse. I will not do it here or there, I will not do it anywhere. I will not give my best regards. I will not do it Sam-you-are.

Dr. Suess: “Would you do it for Danny Cox would you do it for Jimmie Foxx?”

Not for D. Cox. Not for J. Foxx. Not in my house. Not with my mouse. I will not do it here or there. I will not do it anywhere. I will not give my best regards. I will not do it Sam-you-are.

Dr. Suess: “Would you? Could you? For Chuck Carr? Do it do it here they are!

I would not, could not, for Chuck Carr.

Dr. Suess: "You do it. You will see. You may do it for Bill Lee.”

I would not, could not for Bill Lee. Nor for Chuck Carr, you let me be. Not for D. Cox. Not for J. Foxx. Not in my house. Not with my mouse. I will not do it here or there. I will not do it anywhere. I will not give my best regards. I will not do it Sam-you-are.

Dr. Suess: “John Sain! John Sain! John Sain! John Sain! Could you, would you, for Johnny Sain?”

Not for John Sain! Not for Bill Lee! Not for Chuck Carr! Sam! Let me be! I would not could not for Danny Cox. I could not would not for Jimmie Foxx. Not in my house. Not with my mouse. I will not do it here or there. I will not do it anywhere. I will not give my best regards. I will not do it Sam-you-are.

Dr. Suess: “Say! Alvin Dark. Alvin Dark. For Alvin Dark. Would you, could you, for Alvin Dark?”

I would not, could not, for Al Dark.

Dr. Suess: “Would you, could you, for Ferris Fain?”

I would not, could not, for Ferris Fain! Not for Al Dark or Johnny Sain. Not for Chuck Carr. Not for Bill Lee. I will not do it, Sam, you see. Not in my house. Not for Dan Cox. Not with my mouse. Not with J. Foxx. I will not do it here or there. I will not do it anywhere!

Dr. Suess: “You do not give best regards?”

I will not do it Sam-You-Are.

Dr. Suess: “Could you, would you, for Dick Groat?”

I would not, could not, for Dick Groat!

Dr. Suess: “Would you, could you, for Jim Coates?”

I could not, would not, for Jim Coates. I will not, will not, for Dick Groat. I will not do it for John Sain. I will not do it for Ferris Fain. Not for Al Dark! Not for Bill Lee! Not Chuck Carr! You let me be! I will not do it for Danny Cox, I will not do it for Jimmie Foxx. I will not do it in my house. I will not do it with my mouse. I will not do it here or there. I will not do it anywhere! I will not give my best regards, I will not do it Sam-You-Are.

Dr. Suess: “You will not do it, so you say. Do it! Do it! And you may. Do it and you may, I say! Try them and you may, I say.”

Sam! If you will let me be, I will do it. You will see.

Say! I will give my best regards. I will, I will Sam-You-Are. I will do it for Dick Groat, I will do it for Jim Coates, and I will do it for Johnny Sain, and I will do it for Ferris Fain, for Alvin Dark, and for Bill Lee, I will do it, type it you see!

I will do it for Danny Cox, I will do it for Jimmie Foxx, I will do it in my house, I will do it with my mouse, I will do it here and there, I will do it ANYWHERE! I will give my best regards, I will, I will Sam-You-Are!

Therefore...

Best Regards

John

DH = Doubtlessly Historic...

As you will recall, last Monday we discussed Looking ahead to future BBWAA snafus.... There I wrote:

“The class of 2010 will have two slam-dunks and two with decent cases--I’m predicting all four fall short. They are Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez (we’ll deal with the Crime Dog and Edgrr at a later date). Alomar and Larkin should be no-brainers--both were superb defensive middle infielders with terrific bats.”

Admittedly, I was selling Edgar Martinez a little short in that my personal assessment is much higher. I do think the BBWAA will swing and miss on Edgrr but I feel he has a rock solid case for induction into the Hall of Fame.

To begin with, the greatest first, second and third baseman, shortstop, left, right and centerfielder, the greatest pitcher and catcher are all in the Hall-of-Fame. So doesn’t it stand to reason that the greatest DH should be there as well? It may be tempting to ask whether this applies to setup men, LOOGY’s, pinch hitters etc. but it should be remembered that a DH sometimes plays every game of the season--the same cannot be said of the aforementioned role players.

How does he stack up against his peers? First, let’s look at his totals strictly as a DH (at least 6000 PA).

Stat Tot Rank
AVG .313   1
OBP .428   1
SLG .537   1
XBH  627   1
R    877   1
H   1593   4
2B   370   2 
HR   251   2
RBI 1006   2
BB   995   1
RCAA 519   1
RCAP 422   1
TOB 2653   1
TB  2728   2

I think we can safely say he was best in the business. Now let’s see how his hitting stacks up historically (min 8500 PA):

Stat Tot  Rank
AVG .313   30
OBP .428   12
SLG .537   22
XBH  839   72
R   1219   ++
H   2247   ++
2B   514  T35 
HR   309   ++
RBI 1261   ++
BB  1283   38
RCAA 647   34
BR*  565.9 26
OPS+ 147  T41
TOB 3619   71
TB  3718   ++

*Adjusted Batting Runs
++Not in top 100

Now let’s see how he stacks up in his own era; we’ll define it as being since the season was extended to 162 games in 1961 until 2006--two years after his retirement.

Stat Tot  Rank
AVG .313    4
OBP .428    3
SLG .537   11
XBH  839   44
R   1219   62
H   2247   71
2B   514   17 
HR   309   84
RBI 1261   66
BB  1283   22
RCAA 647   10
BR*  565.9 12
OPS+ 147  T14
TOB 3619   32
TB  3718   62

*Adjusted Batting Runs
++Not in top 100

Due to his relatively short career his counting numbers don’t jump out at you, but his level of production has him among the elite. The thing is though, his particular set of counting numbers are actually very solid. One of the worst ways to argue about HOFers is using the “He’s in the group” where you set a number of standards where our candidate resides among some of the game’s greats. However, when you examine the group you see that the one you’ve included is a distant last in most of the categories.

Nevertheless, I’m going to do just that here. I’m not claiming that he’s in this group, but it will demonstrate the high level Martinez played at because it does take a special talent to be in this group--even if they’re away off from the rest.

Here’s the ‘group’--players with careers of at least 2000 hits, 500 doubles, 300 HR, 1000 runs/RBI/BB and batted better than .300/.400/.500 lifetime. The following are those who qualify: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Mel Ott and Edgar Martinez.

What makes Martinez’s career special is he had to be able to hit for average, for power, have a keen batting eye and sustaining it for a significant period of time to join the group. That’s why only seven players have accomplished the feat in major league history, it takes a tremendous hitter to accomplish it.

Some forgettable (in a HOF sense) players have high batting averages (Riggs Stephenson .336), OBP (Ferris Fain .424), SLG (Albert Belle .564), tons of hits (Harold Baines 2866), HR totals (Jose Canseco 462), doubles (Al Oliver with 529), RBI (Baines again 1628), walks (Eddie Yost 1614 BB), runs scored (Tom Brown 1521), but to excel in all the aforementioned categories is reserved for the truly great.

My point?

Edgar Martinez’s strength lay in his level of offensive production however, if you look at his counting stats as a set rather than in separate groups, it becomes obvious that there really isn’t anything wrong with those numbers.

The elephant in the room is Martinez’s time at DH. While he’s the greatest among that group, many feel that DH’s require an incredibly high standard to be considered for Cooperstown. Let’s address this: I’m going to resort to the “lowest common denominator” argument. We’ve already established that Martinez is a Hall-of-Fame hitter, but what about his lack of time in the field? Well, going to the opposite extreme, we need look no further than Bill Mazeroski; a Hall-of-Fame defender? There’s little doubt about that. What about his hitting?

Yes, he had over 2000 hits but that’s it. Did you know he never had a single season where he was league average or better? Not once. Every year, a league average hitter at second base would’ve been a better asset in the lineup than Maz. Yes, second base is a key defensive position, but how did Mazeroski fare against his contemporary second sackers? Over the course of his career, an average 2B created 834 runs. Maz created only 821 runs. In short, not only was he an offensive liability, he was an offensive liability for a second baseman!

Bad example? Fair enough--how about Ozzie Smith? All-time great glove, decent offensive player; what about defensive disasters such as Harmon Killebrew? Had he played today he’d likely be a DH--were that the case, is he no longer Hall-worthy? It’s good to remember that Killer isn’t in the Hall because he played in the field, it’s in spite of his defensive deficiencies.

I feel that Edgar Martinez’s career is deserving of a plaque in spite of his defensive deficiencies--in this case, his time at DH. Either way, he strikes me as worthy--the greatest DH in history or a player whose hitting was so amazing that he could be elected even though he spent most of his career as a designated hitter.

There's been a change...

I wanted to give the gang at Drunk Jays Fans a proper sig at the end of this but something came up.

The bubblegum pop-stars' guild (the Association of Immorally Retarded Ho’s Eagerly Awaiting Dough Songstresses) have requested that after the Hillary Duff fiasco back on January 16th (Miss Duff is worried that--and I quote--"it'll be a day that will live when I'm phlegmy"), that I allow another of their membership an opportunity to handle the sign-off. Reluctantly I have agreed and Britney Spears will be along shortly to do the honours.

There’s a knock on the door--that must be her now.

(gets up to answer door)

Um … hi guys.

(Geez, it’s the freakin’ Minnesota Vikings with a 20 gallon barrel.)

There’s seems to be some mistake gentlemen, I was led to believe Britney Spe… oh, she is here? So, did she hire you guys for security or something?

…

You’re. Her. Date.

I see… (shakes head).

(I don’t know and I don’t want to know.)

There she is now--holy flurping snit! I don’t believe this (rubs eyes) … I can’t believe this--honest to God folks, I’m not lying to you and I swear I’m telling the truth (rubs eyes). Britney Spears is fully clothed!

Whoa, somebody must have opened the seventh seal--the apocalypse is nigh. However, it will have to wait until we're done here.

Guys, that barrel looks awfully heavy, why don’t you set it down over… wow, I didn’t know Haagen Dazs sold Heavenly Hash in 20 gallon barrels. Well, there is a lot of you so I can see why… what? she doesn’t share?

(sigh)

Let’s just get this over with so you can get back to … whatever it is you're planning for tonight. Ready Ms. Spears? O.K. go…

(Are my ears clogged? I don’t hear anything.)

Uhh … Brit, a little louder please I don’t think that did it.

(quickly digs out ear with pinky) Nope, still nothing. Did you guys hear anything? Does she have laryngitis? She’s trying to say something but … what’s this? A tape recorder … O.K. what’s this for? Count backwards from three and hit play? Errrr … alright.

3 … 2 … 1 … (hits play button)

[britney’s voice] Best Regards

John [/britney’s voice]

xcdfzs qdfx mdsjk jlkuoi ,nmjkh \zAEW

(Sorry, I was banging my head on the keyboard.)

Tilting at windmills in my mind...

O.K. gits and shiggles time.

For those of you determined to inflict my writing on yourself you’re doubtlessly aware than I have chewed up considerable bandwidth (Best Regards DJF … Best Regards and expect an offer you can't refuse further on) on this year’s Hall of Fame vote, Jim Rice, Tim Raines etc. etc. ad infinitum ad nauseum. During my sojourn through the wilderness that passes for my normal semi-conscious state, I tripped over an epiphany.

Most people have epiphanies … not me, unless I trip over it for it bashes me over the head I tend to ignore them and carry on my semi-somnambulant way.

Anyway, after I picked myself up and dusted myself off I realized that after re-examining Montreal Expos’ history as it pertains to Raines I had spent considerable time thinking about his outfield mate--Andre Dawson. Yes, Dawson had a terrible career OBP but after sitting back and looking at his entire body of work, I realized it was just one blemish on a tremendous résumé. I found a kindred spirit for Dawson in the Hall of Fame in Richie Ashburn (who I felt was a long overdue induction). Ashburn had a below league average slugging percentage but since he batted leadoff it wasn’t a major issue. Like ‘Hawk’, it was one blemish on a remarkable career.

I believe OBP an important measurement, but Dawson viewed his job to get the OBP guys home--not be one himself.

Therefore, let’s compare Andre Dawson and Jim Rice.

Player  AB   AVG  OBP  SLG Runs Hits  2B 3B  HR  RBI  RP  RCaa BR* OPS+
Rice   8225 .298 .352 .502 1249 2452 373 79 382 1451 2318 270 294.7 128
Dawson 9927 .279 .323 .482 1373 2774 503 98 438 1591 2526 216 216.4 119
*Batting Runs

Dawson played a lot longer than Rice, which allowed for erosion into his percentages and stats like Rcaa and Batting Runs that can go into the negative. Of course a longer career also translates into better counting stats. Of note, both players’ major league careers began at age 21. Since Rice was done at 36, let’s see where Dawson was at that age:

Player  AB   AVG  OBP  SLG Runs Hits  2B 3B  HR  RBI  RP  RCaa BR* OPS+
Rice   8225 .298 .352 .502 1249 2452 373 79 382 1451 2318 270 294.7 128
Dawson 8348 .282 .327 .489 1199 2354 417 92 377 1335 2157 245 239.2 123
*Batting Runs

That tightens things up a bit. Overall, Rice has a slight edge although Dawson--despite worse power-hitting environments--had 50 more extra base hits.

Of course, there are other issues to be dealt with. Rice played left field, Dawson manned center and right field. Rice was unremarkable in left, Dawson’s defense was renowned and won Gold Gloves at both positions--eight in all. How did they fare against their positional peers? At age 36, Rice’s RCAP (runs created above position) was 155 while Dawson weighed in at 191. By the time Dawson retired in had fallen to 140.

We have to bear in mind however that Dawson has a huge edge defensively (at more crucial positions), in base running (314 SB, 74% success rate to 58 SB, 63%) and despite 1702 more AB, grounded into 98 fewer double plays. On top of this, Rice was aided massively by his home park batting .277/.330/.459 away from Fenway while Dawson was often hurt by his home park ("Hawk” batted .278/.316/.483 on the road). Interestingly Dawson had more AB away yet slugged slightly higher while his BA/OBP suffered somewhat away from home.

Throwing everything together, it’s hard to come away with the conclusion that Rice (despite being a better pure hitter) was a superior player to Dawson. It’s the reason that “Hawk” was ‘awarded’ 340 win shares (300-350 generally considered HOF territory) to Rice’s 282. Once Rice left the batters box, he was no longer an asset to his team while Dawson was a threat both on the base paths as well as in the field.

Suffice it to say, Andre Dawson should be the first to get a plaque in Cooperstown.

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Are you a Drunk Jays Fan?

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He Raines With Other Kings of the Diamond...

It’s hard to believe actually.

I simply cannot fathom the BBWAA’s voting habits in recent years. Generally they do a good job in assessing true Hall of Fame talent--most of the worst selections originated with the Veterans Committee and not the writers. I had the good fortune to witness the careers of the men that were under consideration for baseball’s highest honor in 2007-08. This allows for both objective and subjective data to be analyzed as well as having contemporary accounts of their careers available for perusal.

Most folks into sabermetrics understand what Cooperstown numbers look like; some players may look like HOFers using modern measures but not necessarily with traditional metrics--an example of this being Bobby Grich. It works the other way as well--Jack Morris’s totals look far more impressive using mainstream numbers but not so good when filtered through sabermetric matrixes.

Quite frankly, I have no idea what to say when the voters miss guys who look like Hall of Famers regardless of the statistical measurement used.

To begin with (before we get to the meat of today’s topic); let’s have a look at two teammates: The one on top is an eight time Gold glove winning right fielder--the other and unremarkable defensive left fielder:

 AVG  OBP  SLG Runs Hits   2B  3B   HR  RBI  RP* OPS+ RCAA BR** GIDP
.272 .370 .470 1470 2446  483  73  385 1384 2469 127  378 362.4  227
.298 .352 .502 1249 2452  373  79  382 1451 2318 128  270 294.7  315
*Runs Produced (runs + RBI - HR)
**Batting Runs

One is on the cusp of Hall of Fame induction, the other fell off the ballot in his third year of eligibility when he failed to garner the necessary five percent. As we see above, it doesn’t matter which metric you use it’s easy to tell who was the better player. For whatever reason, Jim Rice may well be elected next year while Dwight Evans has to wait for the Veterans Committee.

Which brings us to today's rant.

Here are a trio of first ballot Hall of Fame corner outfielders (and members of the 3000 hit club) that played between 1955-2001. Again, we’ll use a mix of traditional and sabermetric measures:

  AB  XBH TOB* OPS+ RCAA BR**   SB  SB% RP***
 9288 763 3955 132  504 437.6  319  71  2386
10332 776 3833 109  223 107.4  938  75  2361
 9454 846 3656 130  409 355.4   83  64  2481
*Times On Base
**Batting Runs
***Runs Produced (runs + RBI - HR)

Any guesses as to the trio? Again, they’re all first ballot HOFers with 3000 or more hits.

Let’s add another player to the mix, another corner outfielder pretty much within the same time period mentioned at the outset. We’ll list him at the top …

  AB  XBH TOB* OPS+ RCAA BR**   SB  SB% RP***
 8872 713 3977 123  516 332.8  808  84  2381
 9288 763 3955 132  504 437.6  319  71  2386
10332 776 3833 109  223 107.4  938  75  2361
 9454 846 3656 130  409 355.4   83  64  2481
*Times On Base
**Batting Runs
***Runs Produced (runs + RBI - HR)

He doesn’t really stick out much--does he? While he’s last in extra base hits, third in runs produced and batting runs don’t forget that he’s dead last in at bats--by over 400 AB. Despite that, he’s first in reaching base, first in runs created above average (RCAA), and second best in stolen bases but tops in success rate. The simple fact is, he’s not ‘in the group’ in the sense that’s he’s at the bottom of it (and a good distance from the rest)--he’s right smack in the middle of them. No apologies are required for his entry in ‘the club.’

Let’s make still another addition to the group--once again, a corner outfielder (same time period) and we’ll add him in at the top as well:

  AB  XBH TOB* OPS+ RCAA BR**   SB  SB% RP***
 8225 834 3186 128  270 294.7   58  34  2318
 8872 713 3977 123  516 332.8  808  84  2381
 9288 763 3955 132  504 437.6  319  71  2386
10332 776 3833 109  223 107.4  938  75  2361
 9454 846 3656 130  409 355.4   83  64  2481
*Times On Base
**Batting Runs
***Runs Produced (runs + RBI - HR)

He’s in the mix as well. His extra base hits are second in the group despite the lowest number of at bats. He’s dead last by a good margin in reaching base, a distant fourth in RCAA, and a notable distance out of third in batting runs. Defensively he’s probably dead last and close to that as a base runner. Now we’ll add one final wrinkle:

  AB  XBH TOB* OPS+ RCAA BR**   SB  SB% RP*** GIDP 
 8225 834 3186 128  270 294.7   58  63  2318  315
 8872 713 3977 123  516 332.8  808  84  2381  142
 9288 763 3955 132  504 437.6  319  71  2386  260
10332 776 3833 109  223 107.4  938  75  2361  114
 9454 846 3656 130  409 355.4   83  64  2481  275
*Times On Base
**Batting Runs
***Runs Produced (runs + RBI - HR)

Oooo … despite having the fewest at bats of the group, he grounded into 40 more double plays than the rest. He’s one of the two worst in the grouping. So, now let’s see who our contestants are:

Player            AB  XBH TOB* OPS+ RCAA BR**   SB  SB% RP*** GIDP 
Jim Rice         8225 834 3186 128  270 294.7   58  63  2318  315
Tim Raines       8872 713 3977 123  516 332.8  808  84  2381  142
Tony Gwynn       9288 763 3955 132  504 437.6  319  71  2386  260
Lou Brock       10332 776 3833 109  223 107.4  938  75  2361  114
Roberto Clemente 9454 846 3656 130  409 355.4   83  64  2481  275
*Times On Base
**Batting Runs
***Runs Produced (runs + RBI - HR)

Three first ballot Hall of Famers, three members of the 3000 hit club, a probable Hall of Famer in 2009 and Tim Raines--who didn’t even get 25% of the vote.

It doesn’t matter whether you use traditional or sabermetric statistics, Tim Raines deserves closer scrutiny by those entrusted with the vote. He is overqualified for the honor.

Best Re…

WARNING…

A public service announcement for the good citizens of Drunk Jays Fans…

“Best-Regards is available by prescription only and is not for everyone. If you take high dosages of Labatts, often used for chest pain (from watching quality starts get wasted before you are) do not take Best-Regards. Such combinations could cause a sudden, unsafe rise in urges to go to the Rogers Centre to get felines intoxicated for potential pugilistic purposes. Don't drink alcohol in excess (no more than one two-four per hour) with Best-Regards. This combination may increase your chances of getting dizzy and insisting on productive outs. Best-Regards does not protect a man or his soon-to-be-pummelled random feline’s favourite team from nine game losing streaks.

The most common side effects with Best-Regards are rambling and an urge to blog excessively. Worn keyboards or overheating CPU’s were also reported, sometimes with delayed onset. Most men weren't bothered by the side effects enough to stop taking Best-Regards. As with any prescription BR tablet, in the rare event of an urge to bunt lasting more than 4 innings (smallballitis), seek immediate disconnection to avoid Run Expectancy lectures. Discuss your team affiliation and fandom, including any NL clubs, with your doctor to ensure Best-Regards is right for you and that you are healthy enough to watch the Blue Jays. If problems persist, consult with Mike Wilner on the FAN 590.”

Now we return you to our regularly scheduled Best Regards already in progress.

…gards

John

The Mike Gill Show: Lots of hot air....

It’s Wednesday and we all know that means!

Oh … I thought you knew so you could tell me. Well thank you very much for making me look stupid (this space reserved for wisecracks--please be creative). Ah well, since we’re here let’s look at the agenda for this week’s segment on ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show:

• What did we learn from yesterday’s hearings--if anything.
  
• Miguel Tejada was traded this offseason with all this going on--did the Astros get a lemon?
  
• Let’s discuss a couple of players: Kyle Lohse is it common for players to back off their stance on deals at this stage? He wanted four years but now it’s being reported that he might accept a three-year deal to go back to the Phillies.
  
• If you are the Phillies, do you sign Loshe to a three-year deal or a guy like Livan Hernandez, Josh Fogg or Jon Lieber to a one-year pact?
  
• Octavio Dotel, Armando Benitez, Jeremy Affeldt etc.--can they still help a bullpen for a club like the Phillies?
  

What did we learn from yesterday’s hearings--if anything?

We learned that politicians really enjoy grandstanding and don’t do their homework. I mean, c’mon--‘The Blackhawk Scandal’? Bill Wirtz is dead--the scandal is over. Leaving that aside, there were some things we gleaned from the proceedings. To begin with, Don Fehr demonstrated that he’s lost touch with the MLBPA. His statement, "Did we or did I appreciate the depth of the problem? The answer is, no" is a pretty clear admission that his finger was off the pulse of the union.

One unnamed (naturally) former player said

"What I believe happened, is the union was totally blindsided by this. They operate with such arrogance that they think they're always right. So they figured Mitchell was just a boob for Bud who wouldn't come up with anything, especially if none of the players cooperated. Nothing to worry about. But when the feds gave Mitchell [Kirk] Radomski and [Brian] McNamee, the game changed. The union never saw it coming."

This sort of thing happens when an organization communes with itself exclusively and never looks for feedback from the outside. Their biases and misconceptions become gospel truth since nobody tells them otherwise and when the ground shifts under them, they’re caught unawares.

We also learned pretty conclusively that MLB cannot handle a drug testing/awareness program. John Tierney smoked that out rather nicely by insisting on the number of Therapeutic Use Exemptions (TUEs) handed out by MLB for Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD) drugs such as Ritalin and Adderall. In the first year amphetamines were banned TUE’s jumped from jumped from 28 in 2006 to 103 in 2007. It stretches credulity to think a group of world-class athletes have an ADD incidence that is eight times greater than the general adult population.

Getting back to Don Fehr for a moment, I thought he played one point rather well by pointing out the inconsistency of cracking down on baseball players for using substances allegedly controlled by the Dietary Supplement Act and freely advertised and available to the general public.

While he made a good point regarding his constituency being opposed strict testing in the past only because of their distrust of baseball management to administer testing fairly--it left another point unstated. That point being the MLBPA could have instituted its own guidelines and testing to ensure the players had a safe, fair working environment but simply chose not to do so.

Of course, there was some good old-fashioned dramatic hyperbole. This time Betty McCollum of Minnesota uttered a dilly: “Every fan who bought a ticket to see games for the past 20 years has been witness to a fraud — an industry promoted as honest that is in fact rooted in cheating for profit.” She called MLB an industry “filled with lawbreakers and co-conspirators who ignore the problem or actively fuel the problem.”

She could have been talking about any industry in the world at any point in time. I have some news for Ms. McCollum--this has been the case in MLB for more than 120 and not 20 years. In scanning the media looking for comments on this and I came across a great line by Mike Imrem (yes, the same guy I blasted here). Imrem wrote: “So, please, explain to me why it's all right to punish players for cheating but not fire Selig and Fehr for permitting them to.”

Well said Mike.

You can read the whole column here, it’s entitled Simply no accountability.

Miguel Tejada was traded this offseason with all this going on--did the Astros get a lemon?

Not really, one thing we learned from the Mitchell Report is that steroid use was fairly regularly discussed when trades were being mulled. Tejada should hit well at “The Juice Box” however between losing his brother in a traffic accident and being investigated for perjury by Congress one could forgive him if he’s distracted for a while.

While we’re discussing Tejada--this may help Rafael Palmeiro’s Hall of Fame chances since Tejada clearly was using steroids when he injected Raffy. It’s possible that Palmeiro did receive a tainted shot. I’m not holding my breath however--he was tabbed as a juicer in Canseco’s book and he’s been proven right more often than not.

Let’s discuss a couple of players: Kyle Lohse is it common for players to back off their stance on deals at this stage? He wanted four years but now it’s being reported that he might accept a three-year deal to go back to the Phillies.

Sure it is--agents can paint beautiful pictures of the heaps of wealth awaiting their clients (remember Scott Boras’s $350 million just to get into the A-Rod sweepstakes?) but the simple fact of the matter is, long term deals with pitchers are generally a bad idea due to the risks involved. It’s one thing to take a risk with a Johan Santana type arm--quite another for a guy that’s only tossed 200 innings in a season once and has a career ERA that’s below league average. For guys like Lohse it’s a good idea to shoot high since you might find a pigeon but it’s good to remain pragmatic since nobody wants to make a long-term commitment to a league average starter who hasn’t tossed 200 IP in any of his last four seasons.

If you are the Phillies, do you sign Loshe to a three-year deal or a guy like Livan Hernandez, Josh Fogg or Jon Lieber to a one-year pact?

I think it depends on what you’re looking for. Cost certainty is nice and having a league average-ish starter that’s under 30 years old locked in for three years has an appeal. However, if you’re looking to plug a hole with the flexibility to upgrade should a better option arise, then a one-year pact with a low cost veteran starter might fit the bill better. Another consideration is what type of pitcher are you looking for? If a team is looking for a guy who can eat a lot of innings at the end of the rotation then Hernandez is your guy. He’s pitched at least 200 innings every season since 1998 (save for 1999 where he fell a third of an inning short). He’s the very definition of league average.

A guy like Lieber is somebody you gamble on--he’s in his upper 30’s and coming off surgery and looking to re-establish his market value. He has appeal to a dark horse team--a mid-to-low revenue club that has some decent talent that might contend if everything falls into place. If Lieber is healthy and effective, he could be a difference maker. If not, we’ll he’s not a long-term strain on the payroll. A guy like Fogg is best used if you’re simply looking for depth--a sixth starter/long reliever. He’s useful if a team has a potent offense, but a killer on a pitching-defense oriented team.

I think the Phillies would do well with either Lohse or Hernandez--if Hernandez is willing to take a one-year deal then I open the vault and get both--one for a World Series run in 2008, the other as an investment with a potential upside.

Octavio Dotel, Armando Benitez, Jeremy Affeldt etc.--can they still help a bullpen for a club like the Phillies?

Relievers are the most unpredictable commodity in baseball. For instance, who would have thought that the opening day starter, a washed up closer and somebody released from a contending club would be the core of a bullpen that would play a huge part in an unlikely run for the post season? Well, that’s what the Phillies had last year.

When you’re scouring the market looking for useful relievers, you want guys who can induce ground balls and have a putaway pitch. In the case of Dotel and Benitez--both have proven they cannot close on a contending team. While both have good strikeout rates, they also get far more fly ball than ground ball outs making them a bad fit in CitiBank Park. Affeldt is a terrific ground ball pitcher but doesn’t strike out many and has a scary BB/9 of 4.2.

Of the three, I’d probably pick Affeldt but only as a situational lefty. I suppose either Dotel and Benitez could help since 81 games are played on the road. I wouldn’t trust them in big spots at CitiBank.

Will this remove wrinkles from dusty parkas?

For the entertainment of my fellow Jays fans at Drunk Jays Fans--I have brought in Hillary Duff to handle tonight’s closing ceremonies. You go girl!

(giggle)

Um … Hillary--the sign off?

(titter)

Is there a problem?

"Do you like my sweater? I got it on sale at Suzy Shier."

That’s nice, but…

"Did you know I’m a celebity?"

Not according to the tabloids.

"Wha?"

Don’t you mean celebrity?

(giggle) "I think Justin Timberlake is soooooooo hot."

Uh, I’m not really quali…

"Do you think N‘Sync will get back together?"

(taps foot impatiently) Can we stay focuse…

"Have you met Derek Jeter? He’s soooooooooooooo dreamy." (giggle)

What does that have to do…

"I saw him on T.V. last night--do you know where he works?"

Where. He. Works.? Are you seriou….

(giggle titter)

(sigh) Look, this just isn’t working, I think I’ll handle…

"Did you know I've done 63 different made-for-TV movies with a Cinderella-type storyline for the Disney Chan…"

Best Re…

"Who do you think is hotter, Justin Timberlake or Derek…"

Please. Go. Away.

(giggle)

Please. Go. Away.

(giggle titter)

O.K. no more Mister Nice Blogger (brandishes crucifix) BEGONE!!!

"What’s with the guy on the 't'?"

(rummages around desk … finds a mallet and stake--don’t ask) BEGONE!!!

(giggle) "What’s with the hammer and the pointy stick?"

(light bulb goes on, reaches for his wallet and extracts library card) BEGONE!!!

(Screeches and runs away)

Finally.

Well, that was a total bust. Sorry guys, just a normal run-of-the-mill sign off tonight.

Best Regards

John

(Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to stick my library card on my front door for safety’s sake … sheeeesh!)