Wednesday, January 23, 2008

The Mike Gill Show: Dinner at Arby's (as in arbitration)...

It’s (checks calendar) Wednesday and that means ... tomorrow’s Thursday.

No--that’s not it. I mean it is but it’s not what it’s about at least not…

Ahhhh screw it, I have the program for today’s ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show segment. Today we discuss:

  • Ryan Howard wants $10 million and the Phillies are offering $7 million ... who wins if it goes to arbitration?
  • Should the Phillies offer him a long-term deal and lock him up or take their chances when he is eligible for free agency in 2011 risking making him feel unhappy and unappreciated?
  • Does Ryan Howard deserve Albert Pujols/A-Rod money, something less or something in-between?
  • What is something you’re looking forward to as we approach spring training? (This will be a weekly question.)
Ryan Howard wants $10 million and the Phillies are offering $7 million ... who wins if it goes to arbitration?

Let’s see, he has a RotY award, an MVP, hit 105 HR the last two seasons and has a career line of .291/.397/.610. When you consider the mediocre talent that have been signing contracts that average $10 million a year--I can’t see an arbitrator saying that he’s worth only $7 million. Technically, a player can only compare himself to players of like tenure but there have always been exceptions made (Doug Drabek, Bruce Sutter, Fernando Valenzuela etc.) for players that have “star power.”

Should the Phillies offer him a long-term deal and lock him up or take their chances when he is eligible for free agency in 2011 risking making him feel unhappy and unappreciated?

If this kid is going to be part of the future, then lock him up now. Buy up his arbitration and a couple of his free agent years. When that contract is over he’ll be in his early 30’s and the team will have a better idea about how he’ll age.

Guarantee themselves that they will have this guy for his peak years. It’ll be cheaper than waiting for free agency judging by how revenues are growing. A team doesn’t have to pay free agent wages when offering a long-term deal at this point in his career. He trades some money for security and being set financially for life while the team will pay a little more now--by the time the contract is done (assuming no catastrophic injuries) they’ll have saved some money.

Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and to a lesser extent--Brett Myers are the core that a club builds around. Making sure all of them are under contract for the next few years almost guarantees that a franchise is in a position to contend for the foreseeable future.

Does Ryan Howard deserve Albert Pujols/A-Rod money, something less or something in-between?

Here is where the Phillies have to be careful. Don’t forget, they have got Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley sewn up so the Phillies cannot blow the doors off when locking up Howard. If they do, the team may put themselves in a position where there are unhappy players that they may have to renegotiate with to keep content. If Howard has filed for $10 million--then chances are he’ll be willing to take a bit less than that in exchange for long-term security.

Albert Pujols could fall over dead tomorrow and the Hall of Fame might make him eligible simply because he’s been historically great. Alex Rodriguez is heir to the home run crown. Both offer their club’s more than a booming bat. Howard is more limited--he can knock the crap out of the ball but he’s got little value defensively and none on the bases. Howard cannot realistically expect the levels of compensation that guys who are already (or close to being) Hall of Famers.

What is something you’re looking forward to as we approach spring training?

This is the year of second basemen. The Phillies have Utley, the Jays, Aaron Hill (I refer to Hill as ‘Utley-lite’), I’m expecting huge years out of both of them and hopefully an MVP will be coming Mr. Utley’s way in 2008. The Jays have this kid named Travis Snider who absolutely beats the snot out of the ball. He was all of 19 last year and hit 35 doubles, 7 triples, 16 HR and slugged .525 in 457 AB. In 2006, at the age of 18 he slugged .567 with 11 HR in less than 200 AB. I’ve seen some clips of him on YouTube and I’m hoping they bring him to Spring Training just to get a look at him. His hitting reminds me a lot of Ryan Howard (including the strikeouts) but he’s a corner OF (although I doubt he’ll be playing there by the time he reaches Toronto). If he comes to camp, I hope I’ll get to see him play some spring training games.

Let’s try this again shall we…?

Well, I’ve still got Frank Grimes laying on my floor with his tongue stuck in the CD drive. I’ve been told that I cannot move him until the coroner confirms he's deceased and next of kin are contacted. It would be a lot less disgusting if my dogs wouldn’t insist on rolling in him.

Ew.

However, the show must go on and the fine earthlings over at Drunk Jays Fans need to know that my post is over. Against my better judgement (which is pretty much how I’ve lived my life to this point in time) I will again be employing an animated guest to handle festivities.

Any guesses on who it is and why he’s volunteered to do the signoff?

“Well you’re really asking two questions there. The first one takes me back to 1934. Admiral Burn had just reached the pole, only hours ahead of the Three Stooges ... and I guess he won the argument, but I walked away with the turnips. The following morning I resigned my commission with the coastguard. The next thing I knew there was civil war in Spain and, that’s everything which happened in my life right up to the time you asked me to do this…”

And I appreciate your coming here toda…

“Now, my story begins in 19-dikkity-2. We had to say dikkity ‘cause the Kaiser had stolen our word twenty. I chased that rascal to get it back, but gave up after dikkity-six miles …

Thanks, but we…

… three wars back we called Sauerkraut "liberty cabbage" and we called liberty cabbage "super slaw" and back then a suitcase was known as a "Swedish lunch box." Of course, nobody knew that but me. Anyway, long story short... is a phrase whose origins are complicated and rambling, kinda like…”

Um…

… where you write posts that don't go anywhere. Like the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe. So, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days nickels had pictures of bumblebees on them. 'Give me five bees for a quarter', you'd say. Now, where were we? Oh, yeah...the important thing was that I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have white onions because of the war; the only thing you could get was those big yel…”

But…

“… AHHHHHHH DEATH!!”

Sorry, that’s just Frank Gri…

… then after World War Two, it got kinda quiet, 'till Superman challenged FDR to a race around the world. FDR beat him by a furlong, or so the comic books would have you believe. The truth lies somewhere in betweeeezzzzzZZZZZZZ"

(whispering) BestRegardsJohnbye!

2 comments:

Pete Toms said...

I'm very excited about Snider. I think he's the best Jays hitting prospect since Delgado. I've seen some footage online as well and yes he is a whopper of a 19 yr old. I'm amongst those who see him as a DH. He should be ready to succeed Thomas in 10, maybe 09?

What am I looking forward to this spring training? How Zaun reacts to the inevitable PED questions from the Jays reporters. Zaun has never met a microphone he didn't...Will Thomas take the high road with the press on the Zaun situation?

Will Bonds get a spring invite?

Unrelated but Barajas will be a solid #2.

Bill B. said...

Hah! You got Barajas! His unremarkable tenure in Philly aside, he was part of the reason why our catching corps was even close to league-average offensively. But I'm expecting more out of our Ruiz/Coste tandem in '08.

I went over Ryan Howard's monetary situation here if you're interested.

Personally, I think they ought to give him a back-loaded four-year deal in the $65 million range. As much as I like the guy, I don't see him being very productive in his mid-30's years. I see him being very productive over the next three seasons or so, however.

How amazing would it be if Utley won the '08 NL MVP award? How many times has a team had three different players win the MVP award in consecutive seasons?