Suffice it to say, the last few BBWAA Hall of Fame votes have been profoundly disappointing. As somebody privileged to witness the magnificent careers of Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker and Tim Raines, only to see them so hideously underrated while putting Jim Rice on the cusp of immortality boggles my alleged mind.
Anyway, there is a thread on Baseball Think Factory discussing upcoming HOF votes and the new candidates on the ballot. There was a point in time where I felt the trio would be shoo-ins for Cooperstown. Well … I’ve learned to take nothing for granted when it comes to the BBWAA in recent years.
With that in mind, here are my picks as the next swings and misses respecting future votes--players who had Hall of Fame careers but likely will go the way of Trammell, Whitaker and Raines when their names reach the ballot. I’ll attempt to guess the reasons the BBWAA will give a thumbs down.
The class of 2010 will have two slam-dunks and two with decent cases--I’m predicting all four fall short. They are Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez (we’ll deal with the Crime Dog and Edgrr at a later date). Alomar and Larkin should be no-brainers--both were superb defensive middle infielders with terrific bats.
Alomar often drew comparisons to Joe Morgan; he was a 12-time All Star, ten time Gold Glover, was a career .300/.371/.443 hitter, topped 1500 runs, 1100 RBI, 2700 hits, 500 doubles, 200 HR, and stole 474 bases at an 80% success rate. Alomar is seventh in baseball history in reaching base among second sackers. In 11 post-season series, he hit .313/.381/.448 (.347/.407/.449 in the World Series) and stole 20 of 22 bases. Alomar’s home run off Dennis Eckersley in game four of the 1992 ALCS was the moment the “Blow Jays” went from chokers to champions.
Of course, the spitting incident, the fact he didn’t reach 3000 hits, that his best years were spent in ‘smaller markets’ (like Tim Raines) and his career hit the skids when he finally came to New York. Alomar rolled into Flushing a .306/.376/.455 hitter and batted .262/.331/.367 until he retired. The perception will be he wasn’t strong enough mentally to play in the glare of the Big Apple.
Like Alomar, Barry Larkin was a 12-time All Star. Unlike him, he did win an MVP, enjoyed a 30-30 season and would’ve won many more Gold Gloves except they were being handed reflexively to Ozzie Smith even as Larkin was surpassing him as a fielder. His timing is bad too--he was winding down his career as Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra and Miguel Tejada were redefining expectations regarding the position’s offensive contributions. What should never be forgotten is that Larkin copped nine Silver Sluggers between 1988-1999.
What will affect Larkin’s vote totals is that he toiled his entire career in Cincinnati, was frequently injured, and never reached 200 HR or 1000 RBI. Alomar and Larkin will suffer the same fate as Trammell and Whitaker.
In 2011, Jeff Bagwell will be on the ballot for the first time. He made the mistake of being a first baseman not that didn't hit 500 HR. Just as Fred McGriff’s 493 will make voters look elsewhere, Bags 449 will have them sniffing in disdain. Other points against him are that he neglected to hit .300 lifetime, never reached 3000 hits, and his lack of exposure in Houston all will be held against him. His lone Gold Glove and quartet of All Star nods will also diminish him in the eyes of the voters.
However, Bagwell is overqualified for the Hall. He reached the rare triple-triple (a season with at least 100 runs/100 RBI/100 BB) six times with five straight years from 1996-2000. Despite playing first base, he was a two-time member of the 30-30 club. Among first basemen, he is one of three that topped 1500 runs and 1500 RBI in their careers--the other two being Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx. Only Gehrig and Bagwell ever topped 1500 runs/RBI and 1400 BB. Bagwell is also third in modern MLB history (at the position) in RCAA with 680.
Once again I feel the urge to pay tribute to the fine bloggers at Drunk Jays Fans. For today, I have hired not one--but two guest stars to handle the closing ceremonies. Doing the honours tonight are Ricky and Lucy Ricardo. Take it away!
Brest Egads
John
"Roooocy!! You’ve got some ‘splainin’ to do!! What’s weeth that? Are you flirting weeth that drunk hombre in zee dusty parka? You promised to only bang my bongos and not blow some uzzer caballeros trombone! Well, what you have to say for yourself Rucy??"
WAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!
Uh … sorry about that. I guess we should have gone with a rehearsal or two rather than winging it. Oh well, now if you’ll excuse me I‘ve got to rebury them before the cemetery staff notices they’re gone.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Serenity now…
After blog surfing on the Scott Rolen/Troy Glaus trade, I came across some thoughts that do not leave me with that greasy, heavy feeling in my intestines. Some plusses from the deal include that it makes 'high-for-a-Blue Jay shortstop OBP' David Eckstein a better defender since Rolen covers more real estate. Of course I’m a big Johnny Mac fan and hope that he does enough in the spring to make John Gibbons think long and hard about who will start at short.
Another big bugaboo of the ‘07 Jays was their heavy right handed lineup. Their lack of enough lefty hitting mashers haunted the Jays throughout last season. While Rolen does bat righty, he has very respectable splits and is a career .284/.361/.504 against right-handed pitching. Since the Jays will be going with a rotation where as many as three of the starters are entering their sophomore seasons on the starting staff, improving an already top shelf defensive team is a definite plus.
As long as Rolen can deliver around his career norms in OBP it should be O.K. Vernon Wells should rebound with a healthy shoulder. Alex Rios and Aaron Hill should continue to improve (expect a Chase Utley-lite performance out of Hill this season). Frank Thomas intends to spend some time before spring training with hitting guru Walt Hriniak who has always worked well with ‘The Big Hurt’, and Lyle Overbay should be back to his almost Olerud-like norms. There should be enough pop and OBP for a better than league average offense. If Reed Johnson can coax an on base mark of .350 or so, there should be more than sufficient base runners for the middle of the lineup to drive home.
Of course, the offense looked pretty good going into last season too.
The Pujols Award
We’re still accepting nominations for Wednesday’s “Pujols Awards”--if you feel somebody deserves an ‘Albert’ or a ‘Luis’ drop me a line. You can credit your blog with the nomination and I’ll post the link to it. I can guarantee that close to a dozen people will be reading the article (editors included, offer not valid in all states, check your webmaster for details).
Big Mac Attacking
O.K. can we have a little honesty on the part of the media. If you don’t want to vote for Mark McGwire due to steroids or his “I’m not here to talk about the past” performance, can you please grow a pair and say so. The media tucked their tails between their collective legs when it came to discussing juicing in MLB; is it too much to ask that you reach around and extract said tail now that you don't have to face Big Mac? These faux reasons for not voting for McGwire (here's an example of this phenomenon) are beyond pathetic.
In modern baseball history (since the advent of the AL) McGwire is, among first basemen with at least 7500 PA, first in home runs, third in SLG and OPS+, tied for fourth in RCAA, is fifth in OBP and RCAP. To suggest his numbers aren’t Hall-worthy even if they were accomplished absent PED is beyond ridiculous. As I’ve said before, I’m loath to rip on fellow scribes but it is getting ridiculous. To suggest that a player who is top five in so many categories among his positional peers in modern history didn’t have a Hall of Fame career is inverse rectal-cranial disorder at its worst.
The following are top five (first on one category, top five otherwise) at their positions using the same criteria: Mickey Mantle (CF), Mel Ott (RF), Ted Williams (LF), Charlie Gehringer (2B--he’s not top five in HR but is closest using this particular parameter), Yogi Berra (catcher) … starting to get the idea? Absent steroids, McGwire’s numbers are easily first ballot worthy.
It is time…
Once again, in tribute to the fine folks at Drunk Jays Fans I have hired a guest to handle today's sign off. Checking in is Chris Berman* to do the honours. Take it away Chris:
"Since I’m wrapping up today’s post the good folk at TPoSGD are saving the…
Best for last so give my Regards to Broadway and while it doubt it’s possible…
Johnny be good!
BOO YAH"
Thank you Chris, remember don’t settle for cheap imitation regards, come to TPoSGD where you are guaranteed only the very best in quality regards. Any retransmission or rebroadcast of today’s regards is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of John Brattain, blogspot and TPoSGD.
*Not the real Chris Berman (obviously)
Another big bugaboo of the ‘07 Jays was their heavy right handed lineup. Their lack of enough lefty hitting mashers haunted the Jays throughout last season. While Rolen does bat righty, he has very respectable splits and is a career .284/.361/.504 against right-handed pitching. Since the Jays will be going with a rotation where as many as three of the starters are entering their sophomore seasons on the starting staff, improving an already top shelf defensive team is a definite plus.
As long as Rolen can deliver around his career norms in OBP it should be O.K. Vernon Wells should rebound with a healthy shoulder. Alex Rios and Aaron Hill should continue to improve (expect a Chase Utley-lite performance out of Hill this season). Frank Thomas intends to spend some time before spring training with hitting guru Walt Hriniak who has always worked well with ‘The Big Hurt’, and Lyle Overbay should be back to his almost Olerud-like norms. There should be enough pop and OBP for a better than league average offense. If Reed Johnson can coax an on base mark of .350 or so, there should be more than sufficient base runners for the middle of the lineup to drive home.
Of course, the offense looked pretty good going into last season too.
The Pujols Award
We’re still accepting nominations for Wednesday’s “Pujols Awards”--if you feel somebody deserves an ‘Albert’ or a ‘Luis’ drop me a line. You can credit your blog with the nomination and I’ll post the link to it. I can guarantee that close to a dozen people will be reading the article (editors included, offer not valid in all states, check your webmaster for details).
Big Mac Attacking
O.K. can we have a little honesty on the part of the media. If you don’t want to vote for Mark McGwire due to steroids or his “I’m not here to talk about the past” performance, can you please grow a pair and say so. The media tucked their tails between their collective legs when it came to discussing juicing in MLB; is it too much to ask that you reach around and extract said tail now that you don't have to face Big Mac? These faux reasons for not voting for McGwire (here's an example of this phenomenon) are beyond pathetic.
In modern baseball history (since the advent of the AL) McGwire is, among first basemen with at least 7500 PA, first in home runs, third in SLG and OPS+, tied for fourth in RCAA, is fifth in OBP and RCAP. To suggest his numbers aren’t Hall-worthy even if they were accomplished absent PED is beyond ridiculous. As I’ve said before, I’m loath to rip on fellow scribes but it is getting ridiculous. To suggest that a player who is top five in so many categories among his positional peers in modern history didn’t have a Hall of Fame career is inverse rectal-cranial disorder at its worst.
The following are top five (first on one category, top five otherwise) at their positions using the same criteria: Mickey Mantle (CF), Mel Ott (RF), Ted Williams (LF), Charlie Gehringer (2B--he’s not top five in HR but is closest using this particular parameter), Yogi Berra (catcher) … starting to get the idea? Absent steroids, McGwire’s numbers are easily first ballot worthy.
It is time…
Once again, in tribute to the fine folks at Drunk Jays Fans I have hired a guest to handle today's sign off. Checking in is Chris Berman* to do the honours. Take it away Chris:
"Since I’m wrapping up today’s post the good folk at TPoSGD are saving the…
Best for last so give my Regards to Broadway and while it doubt it’s possible…
Johnny be good!
BOO YAH"
Thank you Chris, remember don’t settle for cheap imitation regards, come to TPoSGD where you are guaranteed only the very best in quality regards. Any retransmission or rebroadcast of today’s regards is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of John Brattain, blogspot and TPoSGD.
*Not the real Chris Berman (obviously)
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Well, time for my specialty …
Oh, where to start today--since this is a Blue Jays blog (or so the voices inside my head inform me) I am mulling the story that the Jays are acquiring Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus. My first reaction is to flinch. I realize that he has been dealing with shoulder injuries but I cannot help but wonder if it’s time to stick a fork in him.
Vernon Wells played with a bum shoulder last season and posted an OPS+ of 85 while Rolen weighed in at 89; however Wells put up his numbers against teams like the Yankees and Red Sox while Rolen worked in a division where 85 wins was tops.
Bottom line, it’ll likely improve the defense but defense wasn’t the problem in 2007. If J.P. Ricciardi wants to deal with the Cards, couldn’t he at least try to land Pujols? I mean, the odds on a deal like that are about the same as the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup this year so, um…
Never mind.
When it Raines…
I’d like to thank the following for promoting Tim Raines - Hall of Fame, 2008: Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun, Rob Neyer of ESPN and King Kaufman of Salon--we’ve got to get the word out on Raines. It looks like we still have some work to do.
Suffice it to say I had a lot to write about (Don’t I always?) regarding the vote both at MSN Canada (Baseball Hall of Fame voting: Tim Raines was robbed) and The Hardball Times. Since I’m still bellyaching about Raines, let’s take a quick look at the following:
Here is a smattering of stats both traditional and sabermetric. All of these players spent significant time as corner outfielders. Three of these players are in the Hall of Fame--except Raines. Three of these players are members of the 3000 hit club--except Raines. Despite being last in at bats among the grouping (by 416 AB behind third place Gwynn) Raines is tops among the four in times on base, RCAA, stolen base percentage, second in stolen bases and RCAP and third Runs Produced (by five runs).
Suffice it say Raines is not the worst of the quartet. Three of them are first ballot Hall of Famers. Raines didn’t get 25% of the vote.
Uh huh.
Catching up…
I haven’t posted my THT columns for the last few weeks. Here is what you missed (lucky you):
Finally…
I would like to dedicate the following to the good folks at Drunk Jays Fans. I will do the following stunt with only one hand (the other currently being occupied with my golden retriever, and no, that’s not a euphemism for something else--get your minds out of the gutter).
Wait for it…
It’s coming…
This is the genuine article…
(Don’t try this on your own blog kids--I’m a professional)
Countdown: 10 … 9 … 8 … (cracks knuckles against cheek) 7 … 6 … 5 … (twists neck until satisfying pop is heard) 4 … 3 … (deep breath, close eyes and finds center, slowly exhales) 2 … 1 …
Best Regards
John ©
(bows)
Thank yuh, thank yuh very much.
Vernon Wells played with a bum shoulder last season and posted an OPS+ of 85 while Rolen weighed in at 89; however Wells put up his numbers against teams like the Yankees and Red Sox while Rolen worked in a division where 85 wins was tops.
Bottom line, it’ll likely improve the defense but defense wasn’t the problem in 2007. If J.P. Ricciardi wants to deal with the Cards, couldn’t he at least try to land Pujols? I mean, the odds on a deal like that are about the same as the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup this year so, um…
Never mind.
When it Raines…
I’d like to thank the following for promoting Tim Raines - Hall of Fame, 2008: Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun, Rob Neyer of ESPN and King Kaufman of Salon--we’ve got to get the word out on Raines. It looks like we still have some work to do.
Suffice it to say I had a lot to write about (Don’t I always?) regarding the vote both at MSN Canada (Baseball Hall of Fame voting: Tim Raines was robbed) and The Hardball Times. Since I’m still bellyaching about Raines, let’s take a quick look at the following:
Player TOB* OPS+ RCAA RCAP SB SB% RP**
Tim Raines 3977 123 516 392 808 84 2381
Tony Gwynn 3955 132 504 402 319 71 2386
Lou Brock 3833 109 223 56 938 75 2361
Roberto Clemente 3656 130 409 247 83 64 2481
*Times On Base
**Runs Produced
Here is a smattering of stats both traditional and sabermetric. All of these players spent significant time as corner outfielders. Three of these players are in the Hall of Fame--except Raines. Three of these players are members of the 3000 hit club--except Raines. Despite being last in at bats among the grouping (by 416 AB behind third place Gwynn) Raines is tops among the four in times on base, RCAA, stolen base percentage, second in stolen bases and RCAP and third Runs Produced (by five runs).
Suffice it say Raines is not the worst of the quartet. Three of them are first ballot Hall of Famers. Raines didn’t get 25% of the vote.
Uh huh.
Catching up…
I haven’t posted my THT columns for the last few weeks. Here is what you missed (lucky you):
- Buck Weaver Lives: many players have ‘guilty knowledge’ regarding the steroid scandal. They have been asked to come forward with what they knew and refused to do so--how should we view these modern day Weavers in light of the Hall of Fame?
- Exorcising the ghosts of 2007…: A post mortem on the 2007 debates regarding the Jays’ offensive philosophy. Believe it or not, I generally support the sabermetric approach. However, I’m not dogmatic about it, there are exceptions to every rule and I felt the 2007 Jays were that rare exception insofar as bunting would have improved the Jays’ offense. Bottom line--nobody changed the other’s mind but it was a fun and educational debate.
- The Pujols Awards: week one: The first instalment of a new THT reader-interactive feature where we honour the heroes and zeros of a given week. Since it’s early in 2008, we’ve included some notable from the 2007 season.
Finally…
I would like to dedicate the following to the good folks at Drunk Jays Fans. I will do the following stunt with only one hand (the other currently being occupied with my golden retriever, and no, that’s not a euphemism for something else--get your minds out of the gutter).
Wait for it…
It’s coming…
This is the genuine article…
(Don’t try this on your own blog kids--I’m a professional)
Countdown: 10 … 9 … 8 … (cracks knuckles against cheek) 7 … 6 … 5 … (twists neck until satisfying pop is heard) 4 … 3 … (deep breath, close eyes and finds center, slowly exhales) 2 … 1 …
Best Regards
John ©
(bows)
Thank yuh, thank yuh very much.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Worst. Series. Ever.
While I found the Jays’ offense incredibly obnoxious last year, it was by no means the most frustrated I have been as a Jays fan. After watching Toronto get completely PWN3D by Rickey Henderson and the Oakland A’s in the 1989 ALCS, I was praying for a shot at redemption. I went into the 1990 season with high hopes and expectations.
The Jays jockeyed for top spot in the AL East with the Red Sox through most of the year. As the summer wore on, Toronto would get so close to the top and every so often be tied atop the standings only to quickly fall back into second place. It seemed whenever the Jays needed a big win, they just couldn’t get it.
In mid August, the Jays embarked on a nine game road trip that would take them to Chicago, Minnesota and New York. At the time, they were two games back and when they returned home faced the Red Sox in an obviously crucial four game series. The road trip started well as the Jays took two of three at Comiskey, swept at the Metrodome and went to the Bronx tied with the Red Sox for top spot.
After George Bell singled in a run in the first inning of the opener at Yankee Stadium, the Bombers threw up a four-spot against Todd Stottlemyre. The Jays scored in the second, third and fourth innings and enjoyed a brief 5-4 lead until Jim Leyritz singled home Kevin Maas to knot the game at five.
A one-out Tony Fernandez triple was stranded in the seventh, and in the bottom of the 11th, two errors brought the game home for the Yankees. No biggie though, the Yankees had lefty Chuck Cary (4-8, 4.24 ERA) and Andy Hawkins (3-10, 5.52 ERA) starting the next two games. Then the bats when stone cold.
The Jays scored just two runs off both Cary and Andy Hawkins (both in the fifth inning) and the Yankees swept. The Jays road trip went from terrific to meh and the Blue Birds limped home two games out of first. On the bright side, Dave Stieb was slated to open the series and he came through tossing seven solid innings giving up two runs. He came out to start the eighth and Ellis Burks singled. Cito Gaston came out and decided to ice the game bringing out Tom Henke.
The “Terminator’s” first pitch to Mike Greenwell left the field was quickly as it reached him and it was all tied at three. Henke settled down striking out four of the next six outs he recorded.
With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Mookie Wilson singled and was picked off first by Joe Hesketh. However, Mark Marshall, who was playing first, bungled the catch and Wilson made it to third. An intentional walk to clutch hitting Tony Fernandez brought up Kelly Gruber with runners on the corners and one out. Jeff Gray replaced Hesketh and Gruber tapped one lightly to third and Wilson scampered home and the Jays received karmic payback for the loss to the Yankees in game one of that previous series.
The Jays were one game back of Boston.
Then the bats died completely wasting three magnificent starts by Jimmy Key (7 IP/0 ER), David Wells (8 IP/1 ER), and Todd Stottlemyre (8 IP/1 ER). In game two of the series, Key and Dana Kiecker (4-6, 4.53 ERA)--who hadn’t recorded an out in his previous start against Baltimore, threw up goose eggs for eight innings. The Jays had man on third, one out, in the first inning only to have George Bell and Kelly Gruber strike out. The Jays would only get one other runner to third and that was the result of Tony Fernandez hitting into a double play with men on first and second.
After a three-up, three down eighth inning by Duane Ward, Ellis Burks, Mike Greenwell, Mike Marshall, and Tom Brunansky all singled and the Red Sox were up 2-0. Jeff Gray was brought in to pitch the ninth and sandwiched a Pat Borders groundout with strikeouts to John Olerud and pinch hitter (for Manny Lee) Rance Mulliniks and the series was tied.
The Jays now had to face Roger Clemens (18-5, 2.04 ERA)--who was enjoying a magnificent season--on Saturday. Boomer Wells was up the challenge and both tossed up goose eggs until the top of the seventh when Dewey Evans opened the frame with a home run. Meanwhile, the Jays never got anybody as far as third with less than two out.
With Clemens still pitching in the bottom of the ninth, Gruber reached on an error by Wade Boggs. One out later, Fred McGriff boomed a double but Gruber held up at third. John Olerud was intentionally walked to load the bases with one out. The Jays had their first really good scoring opportunity of the afternoon. Catcher Greg Myers lifted a lazy fly ball to right field and Gruber stayed put. This time Manny Lee (who had an unlikely ability to hit off Clemens) hit for himself but whiffed on a 1-2 pitch and Clemens had the shutout.
The Jays went into Sunday hoping to salvage a split.
Todd Stottlemyre faced Greg Harris (10-5, 3.33 ERA) in the finale of the series. Once again, both starters threw up zero after zero on the scoreboard. Other than the second inning, Toronto went three up/three down against Harris. After seven innings, it was still 0-0; Stottlemyre opened the top of the eighth with a walk to Brunansky, and a wild pitch got him to second. Stottlemyre bore down and struck out Luis Rivera but Jody Reed singled Brunansky home.
Down by a run, Greg Myers beat out a grounder deep into the hole between third and short and Kenny Williams pinch ran for him. Junior Felix struck out without advancing Williams. With Manny Lee up, Williams swiped second base. He tapped a ball to the mound and Williams was caught in a rundown. Lee reached second before Williams was tagged out. Rance Mulliniks pinch hit for Glenallen Hill and drew a walk. With runners on first and second, Red Sox skipper Joe Morgan brought in Jeff Gray who got Wilson to fly out to right to end the threat. The Jays got a two-out walk from Fred McGriff, but John Olerud swung at a 1-2 pitch ending the game.
The Jays were shut out for the third straight time by the Red Sox. Over those three games, the Jays garnered 12 hits and nine walks. They were 0-for-26 with RISP.
As I wrote earlier--Worst. Series. Ever.
Epilogue…
The Jays lost their next two to Milwaukee getting only four runs. They won the finale of that series and it was the beginning of a run where the Jays won 16 of their next 22. A win against the Brewers opening a series in Milwaukee on September 24 gave them a 1.5 game lead over Boston. However, they lost the next two and lost the first two of a three game set in Fenway Park and the Red Sox were back on top to stay.
Best Regards
John
The Jays jockeyed for top spot in the AL East with the Red Sox through most of the year. As the summer wore on, Toronto would get so close to the top and every so often be tied atop the standings only to quickly fall back into second place. It seemed whenever the Jays needed a big win, they just couldn’t get it.
In mid August, the Jays embarked on a nine game road trip that would take them to Chicago, Minnesota and New York. At the time, they were two games back and when they returned home faced the Red Sox in an obviously crucial four game series. The road trip started well as the Jays took two of three at Comiskey, swept at the Metrodome and went to the Bronx tied with the Red Sox for top spot.
After George Bell singled in a run in the first inning of the opener at Yankee Stadium, the Bombers threw up a four-spot against Todd Stottlemyre. The Jays scored in the second, third and fourth innings and enjoyed a brief 5-4 lead until Jim Leyritz singled home Kevin Maas to knot the game at five.
A one-out Tony Fernandez triple was stranded in the seventh, and in the bottom of the 11th, two errors brought the game home for the Yankees. No biggie though, the Yankees had lefty Chuck Cary (4-8, 4.24 ERA) and Andy Hawkins (3-10, 5.52 ERA) starting the next two games. Then the bats when stone cold.
The Jays scored just two runs off both Cary and Andy Hawkins (both in the fifth inning) and the Yankees swept. The Jays road trip went from terrific to meh and the Blue Birds limped home two games out of first. On the bright side, Dave Stieb was slated to open the series and he came through tossing seven solid innings giving up two runs. He came out to start the eighth and Ellis Burks singled. Cito Gaston came out and decided to ice the game bringing out Tom Henke.
The “Terminator’s” first pitch to Mike Greenwell left the field was quickly as it reached him and it was all tied at three. Henke settled down striking out four of the next six outs he recorded.
With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Mookie Wilson singled and was picked off first by Joe Hesketh. However, Mark Marshall, who was playing first, bungled the catch and Wilson made it to third. An intentional walk to clutch hitting Tony Fernandez brought up Kelly Gruber with runners on the corners and one out. Jeff Gray replaced Hesketh and Gruber tapped one lightly to third and Wilson scampered home and the Jays received karmic payback for the loss to the Yankees in game one of that previous series.
The Jays were one game back of Boston.
Then the bats died completely wasting three magnificent starts by Jimmy Key (7 IP/0 ER), David Wells (8 IP/1 ER), and Todd Stottlemyre (8 IP/1 ER). In game two of the series, Key and Dana Kiecker (4-6, 4.53 ERA)--who hadn’t recorded an out in his previous start against Baltimore, threw up goose eggs for eight innings. The Jays had man on third, one out, in the first inning only to have George Bell and Kelly Gruber strike out. The Jays would only get one other runner to third and that was the result of Tony Fernandez hitting into a double play with men on first and second.
After a three-up, three down eighth inning by Duane Ward, Ellis Burks, Mike Greenwell, Mike Marshall, and Tom Brunansky all singled and the Red Sox were up 2-0. Jeff Gray was brought in to pitch the ninth and sandwiched a Pat Borders groundout with strikeouts to John Olerud and pinch hitter (for Manny Lee) Rance Mulliniks and the series was tied.
The Jays now had to face Roger Clemens (18-5, 2.04 ERA)--who was enjoying a magnificent season--on Saturday. Boomer Wells was up the challenge and both tossed up goose eggs until the top of the seventh when Dewey Evans opened the frame with a home run. Meanwhile, the Jays never got anybody as far as third with less than two out.
With Clemens still pitching in the bottom of the ninth, Gruber reached on an error by Wade Boggs. One out later, Fred McGriff boomed a double but Gruber held up at third. John Olerud was intentionally walked to load the bases with one out. The Jays had their first really good scoring opportunity of the afternoon. Catcher Greg Myers lifted a lazy fly ball to right field and Gruber stayed put. This time Manny Lee (who had an unlikely ability to hit off Clemens) hit for himself but whiffed on a 1-2 pitch and Clemens had the shutout.
The Jays went into Sunday hoping to salvage a split.
Todd Stottlemyre faced Greg Harris (10-5, 3.33 ERA) in the finale of the series. Once again, both starters threw up zero after zero on the scoreboard. Other than the second inning, Toronto went three up/three down against Harris. After seven innings, it was still 0-0; Stottlemyre opened the top of the eighth with a walk to Brunansky, and a wild pitch got him to second. Stottlemyre bore down and struck out Luis Rivera but Jody Reed singled Brunansky home.
Down by a run, Greg Myers beat out a grounder deep into the hole between third and short and Kenny Williams pinch ran for him. Junior Felix struck out without advancing Williams. With Manny Lee up, Williams swiped second base. He tapped a ball to the mound and Williams was caught in a rundown. Lee reached second before Williams was tagged out. Rance Mulliniks pinch hit for Glenallen Hill and drew a walk. With runners on first and second, Red Sox skipper Joe Morgan brought in Jeff Gray who got Wilson to fly out to right to end the threat. The Jays got a two-out walk from Fred McGriff, but John Olerud swung at a 1-2 pitch ending the game.
The Jays were shut out for the third straight time by the Red Sox. Over those three games, the Jays garnered 12 hits and nine walks. They were 0-for-26 with RISP.
As I wrote earlier--Worst. Series. Ever.
Epilogue…
The Jays lost their next two to Milwaukee getting only four runs. They won the finale of that series and it was the beginning of a run where the Jays won 16 of their next 22. A win against the Brewers opening a series in Milwaukee on September 24 gave them a 1.5 game lead over Boston. However, they lost the next two and lost the first two of a three game set in Fenway Park and the Red Sox were back on top to stay.
Best Regards
John
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
The Mike Gill Show: The Hall of Fame edition…
We know the drill. Today, on ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show we shall discuss the following topics:
Roger Clemens vs. Brian MacNamee--who do you believe? -- What did you think regarding their phone conversation and Clemens on ‘60 Minutes’?
I think we really cannot deal with the one question without involving the other. To begin with, the phone conversation sounded scripted somewhat. At the very least, it struck me as the type of veiled discussions we hear when they know a third party might be listening in. One would assume that if they felt they were having a private conversation they wouldn’t be dancing around the subject as much as they were. It reminded me of Jason Giambi’s apology after his Grand Jury testimony went public.
Some of the blanks and bleeps were suspiciously long. Even Andrew Dice Clay at his nastiest couldn’t cobble together enough profanity for pauses and edits like that. Quite frankly, neither party is truly credible. MacNamee’s past hardly inspires trust. However, investigators in all this seem less than believable either. Agent Jeff Novitsky has had it in for baseball players for quite some time--especially Barry Bonds.
Now, according to Clemens’ suit against his former trainer McNamee told Rusty Hardin's (Clemens' lawyer) investigators about how both a federal prosecutor and federal agent told MacNamee that he already had two strikes against him (owning and dealing anabolic steroids) and a third (lying to a federal agent) could land him in the hoosegow. After informing the trainer of this, the feds then asked “So what about Clemens?”
The agent, according to MacNamee, said that since he worked so closely with Clemens, he should know that the pitcher was taking steroids. A document was then proffered to McNamee with the statement, ‘We know about (sic) more about you than you know about yourself ... You're going to jail’ and followed that remark with 'Let's go back to when you first met Clemens in '98.'
That sounds like the feds had the verdict in and were now making the case and influencing witnesses. If this is true, it helps Clemens. It would be par for the course for Novitsky. It almost sounds like they want another big fish and are zeroing in on “the Rocket.”
Of course, Roger blew a lot of his believability by going from ‘Brian MacNamee never injected me with anything’ to ‘Brian MacNamee injected me but not with steroids.’
As to “60 Minutes,” it was a good show but didn’t really strike me as substantive. Mike Wallace struck me as a guy who was giving a friend a platform to tell his side of a story rather than digging for the truth--but that’s just me. As of right now, I’m on the fence regarding Clemens guilt or innocence. We need more information one way or the other to come up with a verdict at this point.
The Hall of Fame vote: Is this the worst class and ballot ever?
Goose Gossage was a good pick. The rest of the ballots defied credulity. It looks like Jim Rice will go in next year--however he’s far from the most qualified candidate. I’m of the opinion that Rice wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team. Dwight “Dewey” Evans was every bit as good an offensive player as Rice and miles apart defensively. Andre Dawson is better than Rice, Tim Raines is better than Rice, Dale Murphy is at least as good as he is and perhaps better. Alan Trammell is probably among the top five best shortstops in AL history.
There is no reason Rice should go in before Trammell, Murphy, Dawson and Raines. Dewey Evans has to wait for the veteran’s committee. I think Bert Blyleven deserves induction and he may join the class of ‘09. Jack Morris is an interesting question; I think he’s better than the sabermetric group says he is, but nowhere near as good as the traditional stats crowd opines. He wouldn’t be the worst pitcher in the Hall of Fame but that’s hardly an argument in his favour either.
I would have no problem seeing Tommy John go in. He had a tremendous career and I think his being a ‘pioneer’ of sorts pushes him over the top. I’m sad to see Dave Concepcion go off the ballot. Unfortunately, shortstops like Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter make his totals look anemic but at the time, he was among the best in the business at short. I’m not heartbroken over Mark McGwire’s exclusion. I’d prefer to get a better handle on the steroid era before passing judgement. Make no mistake, all the Mitchell Report did was confirm the era--not define it.
A final thought on the vote: I would strip the privilege from any BBWAA member that submitted a blank ballot. It’s their job to vote--not make personal or political statements. There were many players on the ballot with no taint of steroids for whom they could have voted. It is penalizing innocent players and that’s just plain wrong.
Further, I loath the hypocrisy of it all; if the media didn’t know steroids were prevalent then they lack the proper cognitive skills to vote intelligently. I’m an infrequent member of ‘the beat’ and I knew what was going on. I even wrote about it 7-8 years ago. If a part time hack like me could tell--then anybody could. The BBWAA is acting like Bud Selig in trying to paint themselves as protectors of the game and punisher of ‘the steroid cheats.’ They lacked the backbone to say anything at the time and now they decide to stand up and be counted?
Please.
To me, it’s like badmouthing the school bully after he moves 1000 miles away. Here’s an idea, let’s make the BBWAA of the steroid era ineligible for the Frick Award. Too harsh? O.K. how about making BBWAA members submitting blank ballots due to steroids ineligible--at least it’s consistent.
Will Clemens make the Hall--will McGwire get in?
I think so, unless more conclusive evidence surfaces regarding Clemens, he should be a shoo-in. After all, he has the benefit of being fiery, an intense competitor with a burning desire to win at all costs--a true warrior. Of course, Barry Bonds is the same way but folks say that made him the south end of a northbound horse.
I wonder why there’s such a discrepancy in perception?
I’m guessing the more we learn about this era, the better McGwire will look. Even if the BBWAA goes thumbs-down, I’m pretty sure some incarnation of the Veterans Committee will get him in.
Best Regards
John
- Roger Clemens vs. Brian MacNamee--who do you believe?
- What did you think regarding their phone conversation and Clemens on ‘60 Minutes’?
- The Hall of Fame vote: Is this the worst class and ballot ever?
- Will Clemens make the Hall--will McGwire get in?
Roger Clemens vs. Brian MacNamee--who do you believe? -- What did you think regarding their phone conversation and Clemens on ‘60 Minutes’?
I think we really cannot deal with the one question without involving the other. To begin with, the phone conversation sounded scripted somewhat. At the very least, it struck me as the type of veiled discussions we hear when they know a third party might be listening in. One would assume that if they felt they were having a private conversation they wouldn’t be dancing around the subject as much as they were. It reminded me of Jason Giambi’s apology after his Grand Jury testimony went public.
Some of the blanks and bleeps were suspiciously long. Even Andrew Dice Clay at his nastiest couldn’t cobble together enough profanity for pauses and edits like that. Quite frankly, neither party is truly credible. MacNamee’s past hardly inspires trust. However, investigators in all this seem less than believable either. Agent Jeff Novitsky has had it in for baseball players for quite some time--especially Barry Bonds.
Now, according to Clemens’ suit against his former trainer McNamee told Rusty Hardin's (Clemens' lawyer) investigators about how both a federal prosecutor and federal agent told MacNamee that he already had two strikes against him (owning and dealing anabolic steroids) and a third (lying to a federal agent) could land him in the hoosegow. After informing the trainer of this, the feds then asked “So what about Clemens?”
The agent, according to MacNamee, said that since he worked so closely with Clemens, he should know that the pitcher was taking steroids. A document was then proffered to McNamee with the statement, ‘We know about (sic) more about you than you know about yourself ... You're going to jail’ and followed that remark with 'Let's go back to when you first met Clemens in '98.'
That sounds like the feds had the verdict in and were now making the case and influencing witnesses. If this is true, it helps Clemens. It would be par for the course for Novitsky. It almost sounds like they want another big fish and are zeroing in on “the Rocket.”
Of course, Roger blew a lot of his believability by going from ‘Brian MacNamee never injected me with anything’ to ‘Brian MacNamee injected me but not with steroids.’
As to “60 Minutes,” it was a good show but didn’t really strike me as substantive. Mike Wallace struck me as a guy who was giving a friend a platform to tell his side of a story rather than digging for the truth--but that’s just me. As of right now, I’m on the fence regarding Clemens guilt or innocence. We need more information one way or the other to come up with a verdict at this point.
The Hall of Fame vote: Is this the worst class and ballot ever?
Goose Gossage was a good pick. The rest of the ballots defied credulity. It looks like Jim Rice will go in next year--however he’s far from the most qualified candidate. I’m of the opinion that Rice wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team. Dwight “Dewey” Evans was every bit as good an offensive player as Rice and miles apart defensively. Andre Dawson is better than Rice, Tim Raines is better than Rice, Dale Murphy is at least as good as he is and perhaps better. Alan Trammell is probably among the top five best shortstops in AL history.
There is no reason Rice should go in before Trammell, Murphy, Dawson and Raines. Dewey Evans has to wait for the veteran’s committee. I think Bert Blyleven deserves induction and he may join the class of ‘09. Jack Morris is an interesting question; I think he’s better than the sabermetric group says he is, but nowhere near as good as the traditional stats crowd opines. He wouldn’t be the worst pitcher in the Hall of Fame but that’s hardly an argument in his favour either.
I would have no problem seeing Tommy John go in. He had a tremendous career and I think his being a ‘pioneer’ of sorts pushes him over the top. I’m sad to see Dave Concepcion go off the ballot. Unfortunately, shortstops like Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter make his totals look anemic but at the time, he was among the best in the business at short. I’m not heartbroken over Mark McGwire’s exclusion. I’d prefer to get a better handle on the steroid era before passing judgement. Make no mistake, all the Mitchell Report did was confirm the era--not define it.
A final thought on the vote: I would strip the privilege from any BBWAA member that submitted a blank ballot. It’s their job to vote--not make personal or political statements. There were many players on the ballot with no taint of steroids for whom they could have voted. It is penalizing innocent players and that’s just plain wrong.
Further, I loath the hypocrisy of it all; if the media didn’t know steroids were prevalent then they lack the proper cognitive skills to vote intelligently. I’m an infrequent member of ‘the beat’ and I knew what was going on. I even wrote about it 7-8 years ago. If a part time hack like me could tell--then anybody could. The BBWAA is acting like Bud Selig in trying to paint themselves as protectors of the game and punisher of ‘the steroid cheats.’ They lacked the backbone to say anything at the time and now they decide to stand up and be counted?
Please.
To me, it’s like badmouthing the school bully after he moves 1000 miles away. Here’s an idea, let’s make the BBWAA of the steroid era ineligible for the Frick Award. Too harsh? O.K. how about making BBWAA members submitting blank ballots due to steroids ineligible--at least it’s consistent.
Will Clemens make the Hall--will McGwire get in?
I think so, unless more conclusive evidence surfaces regarding Clemens, he should be a shoo-in. After all, he has the benefit of being fiery, an intense competitor with a burning desire to win at all costs--a true warrior. Of course, Barry Bonds is the same way but folks say that made him the south end of a northbound horse.
I wonder why there’s such a discrepancy in perception?
I’m guessing the more we learn about this era, the better McGwire will look. Even if the BBWAA goes thumbs-down, I’m pretty sure some incarnation of the Veterans Committee will get him in.
Best Regards
John
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
BBWAAAAAAAAARRRRGH...
I’m up for some fun. Actually, I’m in a pretty foul mood so I’m going to be ridiculing people smarter than me. To begin with, the BBWAA got one right--I saw Rich “Goose” Gossage’s career and felt I was witnessing historically great relief pitching.
However, I realize that many BBWAA members aren’t the most sabermetric-savvy folks in the world. The thing is, even using conventional stats I can’t help but scratch and shake my head at some of the votes handed out. Probably the biggest is Jim Rice apparently being on the threshold of the Hall of Fame.
No, I’m not going to bash or diminish Rice’s career. He was, for a time, a tremendous player. What I will do is use Rice’s vote tally to show some glaring inconsistencies in how the BBWAA evaluates players for immortality. For instance, we know that Rice wasn’t a young Barry Bonds in left field as regards defense. He did a fine job playing the Green Monster but they don’t hand out fielding awards for taming the monster.
While we can debate ad infinitum ad nauseum about the validity of Gold Glove selections however if a player garners, say--five Gold Gloves we can assume that the recipient is a reasonably capable defender.
What about eight? Are eight Gold Gloves indicative of a good fielder? By all accounts, I think it is safe to saw Dwight Evans was a solid defender.
My point?
and...
and...
Even if you limit yourself to the traditional measures, it’s not hard to discern that Dewey was as good, if not better than Rice. Therefore, Rice would need a solid 90 run, 90 RBI, 30 HR season to match his 2469 Runs Produced in the same number of at bats.
Evans was far superior to his right field peers than was Rice to his fellow left fielders.
Now when you toss in Dewey’s far superior defense at a more important defensive position it isn’t a stretch to state that Rice wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team. Evans isn’t even on the ballot and Rice is almost in Cooperstown.
Let’s look at another contemporary of Rice. This one is a Gold Glove calibre shortstop who is third in AL history at his position in extra base hits/total bases, fourth in hits/doubles/reaching base, fifth in HR/RBI, sixth in runs, seventh in total bases. He was a six-time All Star in the era of Cal Ripken, and grounded into half as many double plays as Jim Rice in about the same number of at bats.
A historically great AL shortstop vs. a left fielder that wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team? Alan Trammell cannot even get 20% of the vote. While Rice’s traditional stats are better, it seems illogical that the spread between a probable HOF outfielder and a Gold Glove shortstop getting less than 100 votes (and were contemporary players) is that narrow.
Of course, probably the most aggravating thing about the vote (you knew this was coming):
O.K now--we’re still using BBWAA stats and looking at players that were contemporaries. One played in a terrific hitter’s park, the other a good pitcher’s park, and...
A quick and dirty way to make the point is to use ‘eyeball runs’ (runs produced Runs + RBI - HR).
With all this in mind, I find it difficult to take the BBWAA seriously in assessing Hall of Famers.
Best Regards
John
However, I realize that many BBWAA members aren’t the most sabermetric-savvy folks in the world. The thing is, even using conventional stats I can’t help but scratch and shake my head at some of the votes handed out. Probably the biggest is Jim Rice apparently being on the threshold of the Hall of Fame.
No, I’m not going to bash or diminish Rice’s career. He was, for a time, a tremendous player. What I will do is use Rice’s vote tally to show some glaring inconsistencies in how the BBWAA evaluates players for immortality. For instance, we know that Rice wasn’t a young Barry Bonds in left field as regards defense. He did a fine job playing the Green Monster but they don’t hand out fielding awards for taming the monster.
While we can debate ad infinitum ad nauseum about the validity of Gold Glove selections however if a player garners, say--five Gold Gloves we can assume that the recipient is a reasonably capable defender.
What about eight? Are eight Gold Gloves indicative of a good fielder? By all accounts, I think it is safe to saw Dwight Evans was a solid defender.
My point?
Player AVG OBP SLG Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI
Evans .272 .370 .470 1470 2446 483 73 385 1384
Rice .298 .352 .502 1249 2452 373 79 382 1451
and...
Player AVG OBP SLG RCAA
Evans .272 .370 .470 378
Lg. AVG .262 .327 .393 -
Pos. AVG .264 .332 .424 103
and...
Player AVG OBP SLG RCAA
Rice .298 .352 .502 270
Lg. AVG .263 .328 .395 -
Pos. AVG .271 .338 .419 103
Even if you limit yourself to the traditional measures, it’s not hard to discern that Dewey was as good, if not better than Rice. Therefore, Rice would need a solid 90 run, 90 RBI, 30 HR season to match his 2469 Runs Produced in the same number of at bats.
Evans was far superior to his right field peers than was Rice to his fellow left fielders.
Now when you toss in Dewey’s far superior defense at a more important defensive position it isn’t a stretch to state that Rice wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team. Evans isn’t even on the ballot and Rice is almost in Cooperstown.
Let’s look at another contemporary of Rice. This one is a Gold Glove calibre shortstop who is third in AL history at his position in extra base hits/total bases, fourth in hits/doubles/reaching base, fifth in HR/RBI, sixth in runs, seventh in total bases. He was a six-time All Star in the era of Cal Ripken, and grounded into half as many double plays as Jim Rice in about the same number of at bats.
Player AVG OBP SLG Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI RP* GIDP
Trammell .285 .352 .415 1231 2365 412 55 185 1003 2049 156
Rice .298 .352 .502 1249 2452 373 79 382 1451 2318 315
A historically great AL shortstop vs. a left fielder that wasn’t even the best outfielder on his own team? Alan Trammell cannot even get 20% of the vote. While Rice’s traditional stats are better, it seems illogical that the spread between a probable HOF outfielder and a Gold Glove shortstop getting less than 100 votes (and were contemporary players) is that narrow.
Of course, probably the most aggravating thing about the vote (you knew this was coming):
Player AVG OBP SLG Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI RP SB CS GIDP
Raines .294 .385 .425 1571 2605 430 117 170 980 2381 808 146 142
Rice .298 .352 .502 1249 2452 373 79 382 1451 2318 58 34 315
O.K now--we’re still using BBWAA stats and looking at players that were contemporaries. One played in a terrific hitter’s park, the other a good pitcher’s park, and...
A quick and dirty way to make the point is to use ‘eyeball runs’ (runs produced Runs + RBI - HR).
- Raines beat Rice in runs produced 2381 to 2318 (granted, Raines had about a season’s worth more at bats--however, longevity does count when assessing HOFers).
- While giving Rice a slight edge in this category (runs produced), let‘s factor in that Raines stole 750 more bases than Rice with a far, far superior stolen base percentage (84 to 63%).
- Despite having a season’s worth of extra at bats Raines grounded into 173 fewer double plays than Rice.
- Raines was considered a well-above average defensive left fielder while Rice’s glove never drew any rave reviews.
- Raines is probably the greatest leadoff hitter in National League history.
- Rice is nowhere near the best middle-of-the-order hitter in American League history.
- Raines is 40th in baseball history in reaching base.
- Rice is 141st in baseball history in reaching base.
- Among 20th century outfielders, Raines is 14th in reaching base--Rice is 91st.
With all this in mind, I find it difficult to take the BBWAA seriously in assessing Hall of Famers.
Best Regards
John
Monday, January 7, 2008
Of equines, eulogies and epilogues…
Final thoughts on the 2007 Blue Jays: the thing is; everybody knows that defense is an important part of the game. It’s the reason they don’t put Gregg Myers in centerfield or Frank Thomas at short. Part of running an offense is to try to create errors by the opposing team’s defense. It’s how you get the proverbial ‘extra outs.’
To let it be known through words or actions that they can count on their opponents to simply get on base and wait for the extra base hit is like (in football) inviting the opposing defense into the huddle. It’s pretty much letting the other team know how to defend at all times.
I guess ‘sac bunt’ might be the wrong term to use since ideally bunting for a hit would be the preferred outcome. It might be better stated that the occasional attempt at bunting for a hit where, at the very least, it ends up with man on third (or second and third) with one out.
For example, suppose you have a Ryan Braun type at third base/Prince Fielder at first or an aging pitcher. Why not occasionally exploit that by making them expend some extra effort by taking them out of their ‘comfort zone’? Why not make them work a little harder for the out? I cannot fathom why, in every other team sport, it’s a bad idea to telegraph your intentions to the opposing defense but not in baseball.
Since outs are so precious, why not try to get ‘extra’ ones by pressuring the defense and trying to create errors? As Mike Emeigh noted at BTF:
From 1985-1990, Coleman's six full seasons with the Cardinals, there were a total of 180 balks called while the Cardinals were batting, an average of 30 per season. The other 25 teams averaged 15.4 called balks a season. Of the 180 balks, 64 came with Coleman on base (22 in 1986).
That’s a lot of free bases (and runs scored) simply by making the other team jittery. It’s part of the human element of the game that doesn’t show up on Run Expectancy. It’s not a simple matter of ‘to give up outs or not to give up outs--that is the question’ it’s about creating an environment of uncertainty for the other team. To allow the opposing team peace-of-mind knowing that with two men on/nobody out they can set themselves up for the double play without needing to concern themselves with getting in motion to nab the lead runner at third.
To state the obvious--the replacement-level hitters employed by the Jays in 2007 needed all the help they could get. By having them drop the occasional bunt would have created uncertainty that might have led to errors or, if they suspected a bunt was coming, allow an otherwise double-play ground ball get through the holes generated when the infielders were in motion.
Oh well, 2007 is gone and hopefully the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup will be closer to league average than replacement level. It’s time to lay the club aside and bury the badly bruised deceased equine.
Besides, I have a column to finish.
Best Regards
John
To let it be known through words or actions that they can count on their opponents to simply get on base and wait for the extra base hit is like (in football) inviting the opposing defense into the huddle. It’s pretty much letting the other team know how to defend at all times.
I guess ‘sac bunt’ might be the wrong term to use since ideally bunting for a hit would be the preferred outcome. It might be better stated that the occasional attempt at bunting for a hit where, at the very least, it ends up with man on third (or second and third) with one out.
For example, suppose you have a Ryan Braun type at third base/Prince Fielder at first or an aging pitcher. Why not occasionally exploit that by making them expend some extra effort by taking them out of their ‘comfort zone’? Why not make them work a little harder for the out? I cannot fathom why, in every other team sport, it’s a bad idea to telegraph your intentions to the opposing defense but not in baseball.
Since outs are so precious, why not try to get ‘extra’ ones by pressuring the defense and trying to create errors? As Mike Emeigh noted at BTF:
From 1985-1990, Coleman's six full seasons with the Cardinals, there were a total of 180 balks called while the Cardinals were batting, an average of 30 per season. The other 25 teams averaged 15.4 called balks a season. Of the 180 balks, 64 came with Coleman on base (22 in 1986).
That’s a lot of free bases (and runs scored) simply by making the other team jittery. It’s part of the human element of the game that doesn’t show up on Run Expectancy. It’s not a simple matter of ‘to give up outs or not to give up outs--that is the question’ it’s about creating an environment of uncertainty for the other team. To allow the opposing team peace-of-mind knowing that with two men on/nobody out they can set themselves up for the double play without needing to concern themselves with getting in motion to nab the lead runner at third.
To state the obvious--the replacement-level hitters employed by the Jays in 2007 needed all the help they could get. By having them drop the occasional bunt would have created uncertainty that might have led to errors or, if they suspected a bunt was coming, allow an otherwise double-play ground ball get through the holes generated when the infielders were in motion.
Oh well, 2007 is gone and hopefully the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup will be closer to league average than replacement level. It’s time to lay the club aside and bury the badly bruised deceased equine.
Besides, I have a column to finish.
Best Regards
John
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